The Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon as part of Wild Card Weekend, and since the spread of the game indicates it will not be a close game, let’s take a look at the prop market. One of my favorite prop markets is the anytime touchdown scorers, and I’ve come up with one pick for each team. For the Bills, I’m targeting Josh Allen’s favorite target. And for the Dolphins, I believe I’ve found a reason to back a longshot. With kickoff set for 1:00 pm ET on CBS, it’s time to take a look at the best touchdown scorer bets.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills predictions
Buffalo Bills touchdown scorer best bet: Stefon Diggs, WR (+105)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
When in doubt, trust Diggs. The always-reliable receiver is coming off a fantastic Week 18 performance against an elite Patriots defense, as Diggs recorded 7 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown. Insert difference between DK and FD. Now back home for the Wild Card weekend, Diggs is poised to play a large part in Buffalo’s offense. He’s gone up against this Miami secondary twice this season and has found success both times. Diggs has totaled 12 catches on 20 targets and 134 yards against the Dolphins’ defense. While it may be obvious that Josh Allen will be targeting Diggs frequently, that didn’t help the Patriots’ defense stop the duo. Nor has it helped any of the defenses in the league because Diggs still finds a way to get open, and Allen continues to buy himself time to make the perfect pass.
Based on the large spread, oddsmakers expect Buffalo to reach the red zone several times, giving Diggs more opportunities to score. He leads all Bills receivers in red zone target percentage at 34.78%, which is 17.39% higher than Isaiah McKenzie, who is second. Of his 13 catches in the red zone, 7 of them have been for a touchdown. Diggs to score at plus odds is almost always worth a play.
Our Dolphins-Bills Same Game Parlay has +787 odds!
Miami Dolphins touchdown scorer best bet: Mike Gesicki, TE (+550)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Based on the spread of the game and Miami’s total points line, oddsmakers don’t expect the Fins to put up much of a fight. It’s hard to disagree as Miami is preparing to start 7th-round rookie Skylar Thompson for the second straight week. Thompson took over for Teddy Bridgewater in Week 17 against the Patriots and finished 12/21 with a touchdown and an interception. He followed that up with a 20/31 for 152 yards performance against the sinking Jets. The rookie failed to find the end zone in Week 18, which means he remains at only 1 touchdown thrown this season, and that was to none other than Mike Gesicki. It happened in Week 17 against New England in the final minutes of the game, but the more important part is how Thompson kept Gesicki relevant in the offense.
Thompson targeted the tight end 4 times in the final drive of the game, which resulted in Gesicki scoring. And then in Week 18, Gesicki led the Dolphins in targets (6) and yards (46). It’s also important to note that Thompson started in Week 6 against the Vikings but unfortunately had to leave early with an injury. Thompson finished 7/13 for 87 yards but targeted one player for over half of his attempts. That Miami receiver? Gesicki, who finished with 6 receptions on 7 targets for 69 yards. Thompson obviously favors Gesicki, so I’ll take the tight end to score at over 5/1 odds.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer FAQs
What does “anytime touchdown scorer” mean?
Anytime touchdown scorer is a popular player prop bet that NFL bettors can wager on throughout the season. But what is it, and how do you win?
As the name suggests, placing a wager on the anytime touchdown scorer market is when you tip a particular player to score a touchdown during a game. This can be a rushing or receiving touchdown for an offensive player, or you can wager on a team’s defense/special teams to score a touchdown by interception return and fumble return or kickoff and punt returns.
If your player or defense scores a touchdown, you win! The odds will differ from player-to-player depending on the sportsbooks’ calculated probability of that player scoring.
Does anytime touchdown scorer include passing touchdowns?
Not for a quarterback, no. A player must get into the endzone, himself, in order to qualify as an anytime touchdown scorer. If a quarterback throws a touchdown pass, only the player who caught it counts as the scorer. If Joe Burrow throws a touchdown pass to Ja’Marr Chase, wagers placed on Evans as an anytime touchdown scorer will cash. However, those placed on Rodgers as an anytime touchdown scorer will not (unless he also runs for a TD). See below for more on what the anytime touchdown scorer market means for quarterbacks.
What does anytime touchdown scorer mean for a QB?
For a wager on a QB to be an anytime touchdown scorer to cash, he must follow the same rules as a running back, tight end, or receiver. He must get into the end zone himself, either as a runner or a pass-catcher.
In the age of the mobile quarterback, QBs such as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray are often seen rushing in for a touchdown on any given Sunday. And don’t forget the occasional Philly Special, either. QBs can sometimes catch passes for TDs, too.
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