Sam Avellone
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Because of the popularity of March Madness, spreads and totals tend to be set efficiently by oddsmakers. Player props offer another option if you are having trouble finding value on the game lines. After going 1-2 on Thursday’s player props, we look to right the ship on Friday. Here are my favorite player props for Friday’s slate of games, odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Kofi Cockburn (Illinois) over 19.5 points (-113)
This is going to be a popular selection, but Cockburn owns a massive size advantage against the Chattanooga post players and has an elite usage rate. Cockburn’s primary defender will be Silvio De Sousa, who stands at 6’9″ and commits 5.7 fouls per 40 minutes. De Sousa’s backup is 6’7″ Josh Ayeni, who commits 9.9 fouls per 40 minutes. Illinois will likely play inside out against an undersized Chattanooga team, giving Cockburn plenty of touches in the post while will likely result in a good few free throws as well. Cockburn has scored 20 or more points in 6 of 9 games away from home since the turn of the calendar year and has attempted 13 or more shots in 6 of his last 7 games.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Chattanooga Mocs vs Illinois Fighting Illini
Luka Brajkovic (Davidson) over 13.5 points (-120)
Brajkovic is a 6’10” center that can step outside and knock down the three-point shot (40%). Davidson will likely use him in the post, as he ranks in the 90th percentile in post-up offense. However, coach Bob McKillop will also use Brajkovic as a cutter, which Marcus Bingham could struggle with defensively. Brajkovic takes 24.6% of the team’s shots when he is on the floor and averages 14.2 ppg this season. He has attempted 10 or more field goals in 7 of his last 9 games and should be heavily involved against the Spartans. Michigan State ranks in the top 100 in KenPom’s average possession length, so there could be some pace to this game — which Brajkovic welcomes as he scored 19 or more points in 4 games against teams in the top 100 of possession length.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Davidson Wildcats vs Michigan State Spartans
Jabari Smith (Auburn) over 2.5 threes made (-125)
Smith will be able to use his size to rise over any defender that Jacksonville State throws at him. He is the most reliable scorer for an Auburn team that struggles to put the ball in the basket away from home, so I expect him to be heavily relied upon especially if the going gets tough at any points in this game. Smith shoots plenty of deep shots. Since Auburn’s game against Vanderbilt on February 16th, the averages 6.7 three-point attempts per game, and he has made exactly 3 in each of Auburn’s last 4 games.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Auburn Tigers
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