Ricky Dimon
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It is true that the NCAA Tournament has center stage this week and the MLB season usually doesn’t begin until the end – or near the end – of the Big Dance. This year, however, they start at the same time – sort of. While most MLB franchise are still in the middle of spring training, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are playing a pair of real, meaningful, regular-season games in Seoul, South Korea. Following L.A.’s “Opening Day” victory, San Diego will try to even the “Seoul Series” on Thursday evening. Here is my Padres vs Dodgers Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 6:05 am ET on ESPN.
Padres ML (+154)
Under 8.5 (-102)
Mookie Betts to record a hit (-260)
Same Game Parlay odds: +693
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the entire plan here, as Mookie Betts getting a hit obviously goes against a Padres win and the under. Of course, something as inconsequential as a single hit hardly impacts the outcome of the game. So even if Betts gets on base, there is no reason why the other legs can’t cash. Let’s break down the entire SGP.
San Diego Padres ML over Los Angeles Dodgers (+154)
The Padres lost 5-2 on Wednesday, but they basically lost on a fluke play when it looked like they could be on the way to a 2-1 victory. A Gavin Lux grounder went through Jake Cronenworth’s glove – literally – and led to a 4-run rally after the eighth inning otherwise probably would have ended with a double-play. Alas, San Diego held its own from start to finish with its National League West rival. The underdogs will try to even the series by sending reliable veteran Joe Musgrove to the mound. Los Angeles is countering with newcomer Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Making his MLB debut, Yamamoto arrives in L.A. with massive expectations. Still, a debut is never easy for anyone. The Dodgers got lucky on Wednesday; I think the Padres are due to bounce back on Thursday.
Read our full Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres predictions
Under 8.5 (-102)
Wednesday’s pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and Yu Darvish delivered the goods. That game stayed under an 8.5 total despite the Padres’ stroke of bad luck in the field. If not for the equipment malfunction, that could have been a 2-1 final. As mentioned yesterday, the Gocheok Sky Dome is 325 feet to left and right field and 400 feet to dead center. The fence is 12 feet high and the entire field is artificial turf. It’s an unfamiliar track for the fielders, of course, but at the same time there is nothing peculiar about it. The defense should be good (barring another hole in the glove!) and we already know that this should be another fantastic pitching matchup between Yamamoto and Musgrove. Last season Musgrove faced the Dodgers twice; one outing resulted in 4 runs through 5.2 innings but the other was 5.0 innings with zero earned runs allowed. In 2022 he pitched to a 3.63 ERA and in 2021 his ERA in this matchup was 3.00. I’m expecting another low score for the second contest in Seoul.
Our MLB expert has their Padres vs Dodgers YRFI/NRFI best bet after going 42-23 last season!
Mookie Betts to record a hit (-260)
Not many Dodgers players have enjoyed success against Musgrove, but Betts has been pretty good in this matchup. The veteran outfielder is 6-for-17 lifetime (.353) when Musgrove is on the mound, with 3 of the hits going for extra bases. It’s also worth noting that Betts has walked 4 times and struck out only once, so he clearly sees the ball well coming out of the right-hander’s hand. Betts opened with a 2-for-4 effort on Wednesday; asking him to get just 1 hit in the series finale should not be too much.
