Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are back in the Super Bowl for the third time in 6 seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs. This game will be built up as the “Andy Reid Bowl” since he is going up against his old team in the Philadelphia Eagles. It will also be hailed as the “Kelce Bowl,” as Travis and Jason are facing off. For me, this matchup is clear: experience vs inexperience. This Super Bowl reminds me of Super Bowl LIII between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams. The Rams were the hottest team in the NFL that year with wiz kid head coach Sean McVay and an explosive offense led by Jared Goff and Todd Gurley. The result? New England won 13-3. While I do not think the score will be similar, the overall theme should translate. One team has been here multiple times and knows what to expect; the other could be taken aback by the moment and shrink.
There are two weeks of press and media obligations for both teams, so it is very easy to be distracted. For Mahomes and Kelce, this is their third Super Bowl. Their last trip ended in defeat, but they have lifted the Lombardi Trophy before and will be eager to do it again. I will always side with experience in these moments assuming the two teams are somewhat close in talent. The Chiefs are +1.5 and have a distinct edge in QB and head coach — the two most important roles. For now, though, it’s time to focus on the Chiefs for our Super Bowl Prop Bets.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 passing attempts (-115)
Line available on PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
An additional two weeks for his high ankle sprain will help with his pocket mobility, but it still did not prevent him from throwing the ball 43 times vs Cincinnati in the AFC Championship. Mahomes for his postseason career averages 38 attempts per game and hit this line in 8 of 13 (61%); he also hit this in both Super Bowl appearances. While I do think the Chiefs will have success on the ground against the Eagles, the game-plan will rely on Mahomes’ arm — as we have seen in his previous two Super Bowl appearances. What I really like about this play is that it accounts for both game-scripts. If Philadelphia wins, Mahomes will have to throw playing from behind. If the Chiefs prevail, it will be because Mahomes is moving the ball up and down the field. The line is as high as 39.5 at other books, so this is a steal. 1U.
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Isiah Pacheco longest rush Over 13.5 yards (-120)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
There is a lot to like about Pacheco in this upcoming game, but I have landed on his longest rush prop. He has hit this in 5 of the last 10, but most importantly he gets an ideal matchup. The Eagles have given this up 12 times all season and in 5 straight games. We saw Christian McCaffrey break free in the NFC Championship with the entire defense expecting him to be carrying the ball. Against Kansas City, Mahomes prevents any defense from stacking the box. Pacheco is coming off his second-highest snap percentage of the season, proving that Reid is not afraid to use him when it matters most. This is one of my Super Bowl Best Bets. 1.5U.
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Jerick McKinnon Over 20.5 receiving yards (-125)
Line available on PointsBet Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
McKinnon has seen his receiving yards line drop to the lowest it’s been in over a month. The last time it was under 20.5 yards, McKinnon finished with 70 receiving yards against the Texans on December 18. The Chiefs’ WR core is hobbled heading into this game and aside from Travis Kelce, McKinnon may be the most reliable target for Mahomes. Mecole Hardman, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Kadarius Toney all missed practice the week of January 30, and while I expect Toney/Smith-Schuster to play, to what extent is yet to be seen.
McKinnon has been quiet this postseason but will see a larger part of the game plan with him involved compared to the past two weeks. The Eagles rank 24th in pass DVOA vs RBs, allowing 6.8 targets per game to opposing running backs. In the Chiefs last 2 Super Bowl appearances, running backs combined for 9 targets and 8 targets, respectively. Andy Reid has even fewer weapons at this disposal this go around, and McKinnon should play a bigger part than we have seen of late. 1U.
If you’re looking for Super Bowl Parlays, then make sure you check out our Chiefs vs Eagles Same Game Parlay
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-108)
Line available on Caesars sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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