Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Sunday’s 1:00 slate features 9 games, including the Philadelphia Eagles putting their undefeated back on the line plus the New England Patriots trying to bounce back on a short week following a Monday Night Football loss.
Here are my favorite early-afternoon props — and check out our full Sunday NFL analysis, as well. Also make sure you are following me on Twitter at @PropHolliday for all my plays and updates!
Jared Goff, QB, DET Over 34.5 passing attempts (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This line is right at Miami’s season average of opposing QBs attempts per game. Goff has hit this in 4 of 6 games this season and in 2 of 3 at home. D’Andre Swift is scheduled to make his return this week and I see that as a positive for Goff’s passing attempts, as the offense has more flexibility with Swift on the field vs Williams being more run dominant. The Dolphins in general have struggled with QBs all season, and if Goff can get going then head coach Dan Campbell will let him rip it. If Goff is going to have a bounce-back game, it’s going to be this one. 1U from me.
Elijah Moore, WR, NYJ Over 2.5 receptions (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Moore sat out Week 7 after demanding a trade due to being unhappy with his role in the Jets’ offense. This week, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports that Moore is expected to play a prominent role in the offense and specifically mentioned getting Moore…wait for it…more targets. The line of 2.5 is enticing and with Breece Hall going down for the season, we could see an uptick in pass attempts. What puts me over the edge on this play is his matchup with Jalen Mills. The New England CB grades out as #102 out of 105 CBs in the league according to PFF. As a cherry on top, the Jets will be without Corey Davis this Sunday. I don’t have many of these, but this is a 2U play.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL Over 70.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Lamb finished with 70 on the nose last week in Dak Prescott’s return. The Bears struggle mightily with deep balls, so this could be a big spot for Lamb. His 6 targets against Detroit were the lowest all season and we should see that number creep back up to 8. Zeke Elliott being out could see the Cowboys go more uptempo, as well. If you are looking for an alt line player this Sunday, Lamb is your guy. I’m in for 1U on Lamb; play up to 73.5 before scaling back.
Irv Smith Jr., TE, MIN Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Smith has been fairly disappointing this season compared to expectations. The Alabama product has failed to reach 50 yards all season and is easily the 3rd WR target behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen; some games he is 4th. However, this is a great opportunity for Smith to deliver his breakout game coming out of a bye. The public is all over the Cardinals at +3.5, but I think the Vikings will win handily at home. They have allowed this line in all 7 games this season to opposing TEs and Smith is good for at least 4 targets on Sunday. The Cards are allowing a whopping 10.57 yards per catch to opposing TEs. I’m in for 1U, as well, on Smith.
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