Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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After a slightly down Week 6, I’m ready for a big bounce back. The books in general made a killing last week so let’s find some market correction in this 1:00 pm slate. Bye weeks are in full effect so it will be fun to target teams coming off long rest and getting a bit healthier. The best game of the 1:00 pm slate might be Giants at Jacksonville, with Browns vs Ravens following up behind. Check back in over the weekend for late additions. Make sure you’re following me @PropHolliday on Twitter!
Check out our full Week 7 analysis here.
Allen Lazard Over 48.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Packers have lost two straight and need a bounce-back game in the worst way. They will likely be without Randall Cobb and Christian Watson this week, so I expect Rodgers to stick with who he knows {Insert Allen Lazard}. The Commanders are allowing 14.83 yards per catch to opposing WRs (30th overall). Lazard has been boom or bust this season, but the targets have been consistent. He’s seen 6+ targets in 4/5 games. Whether he lines up against Benjamin St.-Juste or Kendall Fuller, he has a very winnable matchup as both are graded out bottom 35 overall according to PFF. He’s had a reception of 26+ yards in 3/5 games and his aDOT is 14.8. I’m expecting Lazard to have an explosive week. He will be on my alt-line list to play up to 70+, but for now I’m going 1.5U on Lazard at this line.
Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing TDs (+105)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Giants are 5-1 and Brian Daboll is already polishing his COTY trophy. To me, they’re fools gold. If you don’t agree, ask yourself why they’re 3-point underdogs to the 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars. Lawrence has bounced back big in his 2nd year under Doug Pederson and has show glimpses of being the #1 overall pick. According to PFF, Lawrence has thrown a TD on 4.2% of passes against man defenses vs 0.7% against zone defenses. The Giants are only one of three teams to run man defense on over 47% of pass plays. The Giants have held opposing QB’s to only 7 passing TDs on the year, but that list includes Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush and Justin Fields. Both Ryan Tannehill and Aaron Rodgers hit this mark. If you’re feeling froggy, the Evan Engram TD narrative will yield you +250 odds. I’m on for 1.5U.
Be sure to check out our NFL Week 7 best bets – We’re 26-8 on the season!
Matt Ryan INT (-135)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It’s a lot of chalk, but for good reason. This is the 2nd time the Colts and Titans are meeting in the last month. The first game, Ryan did throw an INT as well. For the season he’s thrown a pick in 4/6 games (7 total). The Titan’s defense has done a great job with INT’s outside of the Colts; they’ve nabbed a pick in 4/5 games and are coming off a bye week. OLB Bud Dupree returns from a 2-week absence and was the deciding factor on this play for me. When Ryan is under pressure, he’s thrown 5 INTs in 66 attempts and his turnover worth pass rate increases to 7.8%. This is the 2nd worst in the league for qualified passers behind Trevor Lawrence. Put me in for 1U and call me a chalk eater.
Check out our full Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans predictions
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