Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The addition of the London game really limits what our 4:25 pm slate looks like. Fortunately, 2 of the 3 games are good matchups in Cowboys vs Rams and Eagles vs Cardinals. I’ll keep my plays limited to where I feel there is an advantage, as reaching tends to get us in trouble. Check back in daily as new lines become available. Also, make sure you are following me on Twitter @PropHolliday!
Read our NFL picks for every Week 5 game — we’re 42-22-1 on spreads this season!
DeVonta Smith over 3.5 receptions (-131)
Line available at Caesar’s Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Smith is the definition of a “boom or bust” player prop guy. He’s hit this in 2/4 games this season and gets the best matchup of anyone on the team in Cardinals cornerback Marco Wilson. Byron Murphy will likely tail AJ Brown around the field like he did Davante Adams in Week 2 (where he locked him up for 2 receptions and 12 yards). Smith is still 2nd on the team in targets at nearly 23% target share and this game has the potential to be a shootout.
With Smith being one of the better route runners in the league, I expect Jalen Hurts to be able to find his 2nd-year receiver open early and often. I’m going with the safer play of over 3.5 receptions, but if you’re feeling frisky, pivot to his total at 52.5 yards. I will also be playing his alt-line on Sunday up to 80+ yards. This is a 1.5U play from me. If it jumps to 4.5, scale back to 1U.
Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals predictions
Darrell Henderson over 33.5 rushing yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Henderson has seen the most snaps in 3 of 4 games and hit this line in 2 of 4. He’s clearly separated himself as the better running back of the two in LA. And I expect McVay to roll with Henderson on Sunday to start the game. Cam Akers has looked indecisive and is lacking the confidence to get north/south. The 49ers are a tough defense to gauge success from an RB as they are arguably the best rush defense in the league. However, against lesser opponents, Henderson has averaged over 4.1 YPC.
The Cowboys allow the 11th-most YPG to opposing RBs at 105 and their 4.78 YPC is the 13th-worst. The Rams OL has been banged up, but should return center Brian Allen to the lineup, which will be a big boost. Because of McVay’s ability to ride the hot hand, I’m playing this at only 0.5U. Henderson has the ability to hit this line with just 9 carries.
Be sure to check out our full Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams predictions
George Kittle Over 3.5 Receptions (+102)
Line available at Caesar’s Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Kittle has been designated to a left tackle in his 2 games this season. Despite the need for him to stay in line in block, Kittle had 9 targets in 2 games. The Panthers represent an opportunity for Kittle to pull out of his slump and after watching Zach Ertz go off for 9 receptions last week, I’m ready to pull the trigger. Garoppolo this week commented on how Kittle is slowly getting back to full healthy after his injury and their offense is designed to have different players pop each week. If I’m getting this at + money, I feel it’s worth the swing. I’m being cautious, but 0.5U from me.
Be sure to check out our full San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers predictions.
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