Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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This Sunday’s late games have a lot of blowout potential just based off the spreads but should be great spots for player props. I have two repeat picks from last week, which is very rare for me. However, I feel very confident in the plays based on matchup and the current lines. As always, use a 5% variance unless otherwise stated. I have also begun to include the unit size, which corresponds with my confidence level in the play. If you see an over listed and your book offers alternate lines (50+, 60+, 70+, etc.) at plus-money odds, feel free pursue the odds for which you are looking.
And make sure you are following me on Twitter @PropHolliday!
Don’t miss any of our NFL Week 3 picks after we went 13-3 on spreads last week
Courtland Sutton (DEN) over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on Draftkings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Play up to 56.5.
Monday Night Football was very messy for the Denver Broncos, but Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy proved to be a very formidable WR duo for Russell Wilson. Sutton finished with 7 targets, 4 receptions and 72 yards with a long of 30 yards. Last week against the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman had a monster game that should correlate what Sutton can do against this secondary. Sutton lined up out wide 80% of the time (Pittman 100%) and he had the highest aDOT in the league in Week 1 (19.1). I believe this line is exceptionally low because of how porous the Texans’ rush defense is, so the belief is that Denver will run the ball — but it may not be before Sutton gets his yards. I’m expecting Sutton and Jeudy to ping-pong back and forth each week for best receiver in the offense. This week belongs to Sutton. I’m on this for 2U.
Be sure to check out our full Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos predictions
Geno Smith (SEA) under 30.5 pass attempts (-110)
Line available on Draftkings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This line appears to be a slight overreaction to Week 1 and I’m ready to fade Geno Smith against this 49ers defense in their home opener. In 3 starts last season, Geno only hit this number once and Monday night’s game landed Geno on 28 pass attempts. The Broncos dominated the time of possession in that game and I’m expecting a similar outcome against Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the league to go along with one of the best front 4s, so Geno will likely be under duress for most of this game. Seattle went 1-1 last season against SF and in their victory, Russell Wilson only threw the ball 23 times. Expect a heavy dose of Rashad Penny on Sunday and a methodical 49ers offense that should eat up the clock. This number is just too high for me at 30.5. If Geno is throwing more than 30 times, something has gone very wrong for the Seahawks. I’m on this for 0.5U.
Be sure to check out our full Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers predictions
Allen Robinson (LAR) over 49.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Play up to 52.5.
I’m fully prepared to be hurt again by Allen Robinson. After a disastrous Week 1 for A-Rob and the entire offense, the Rams are looking to bounce back against the Atlanta Falcons. We have a precedent for the type of treatment Robinson received in Week 1 and it circles back to Robert Woods in 2021. After being completely snubbed early in the season in favor of Cooper Kupp, Woods pulled head coach Sean McVay aside and told him he wants the ball. The result was 14 targets, 12 receptions and 150 yards against the Texans in Week 8. I’m expecting a similar situation and seeing this line below 50 is exciting consider he closed opening night at 62.5.
Only 2 targets in Week 1 leaves us little to work with, but his solo reception went for 12 yards and he had a deep ball thrown his away in garbage time (22 yards). Conservatively, Robinson should see 5 to 6 targets this Sunday, which is more than enough for him to eclipse this number. Play this up to 52.5 for 1U.
Be sure to check out our full Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams predictions
Dameon Pierce (HOU) longest rush over yards 11.5 (-125)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m going to trust Lovie Smith on this one and believe we saw more Dameon Pierce against the Denver Broncos. Smith went on record this week stating it was a mistake that Pierce had such a low snap count, and he will have an increased workload going forward. This is a buy low spot for me because if Pierce becomes the bell cow for the rest of the year, this line will look to be 14.5+ going forward.
After watching Rashaad Penny break a 26-yard run on Monday, I feel confident Pierce can break a long run with an increased workload. As evidenced by his preseason performance against the 49ers, Pierce has the vision to spot the hole, put his foot in the ground and get up field quickly. These are the things you look for in a rookie RB and someone to break a large gain. I’m on this for 1U.
Be sure to check out our full Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos predictions
Darren Waller (LV) over 48.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on Draftkings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Play up to 51.5.
No, you are not reading last week’s article…. I am once again on Darren Waller to go over 48.5 receiving yards. I normally would not repeat a bet, but if it was successful the first time and the line remain the same, I will go back to the well. The exciting part about this week’s play is that Waller gets a more favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals recently gave up 9 targets, 8 receptions and 121 yards to Travis Kelce in Week 1 and could be a defense we pick on very frequently this year. Waller lined up in the slot 66% of the time and finished 4th in YAC/REC for all TEs with at least 4 targets. His aDOT was 2nd best behind only Harrison Bryant for all TEs, so Waller is stretching the field nicely in this new offense. I’ll scale this back to 1U compared to 2U last week, but I was surprised to see this open at 48.5.
Be sure to check out our full Arizona Cardinals vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions
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