Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Week 2 is often filled with overreactions from Week 1, but it’s important to delve into matchups. If a player underperformed Week 1, it could be that they landed an unfavorable matchup right out of the gate. If a player exploded in Week 1, it could be that their game went into OT and the numbers are slightly skewed. I did my best to find plays on premier players in advantageous spots.
It’s fun to find diamonds in the rough, but you can be left in the dust if they’re fazed out of the game plan or were a one-hit wonder based on their matchup last week. For that reason, I focused my 1 pm picks on guys that will be in the game no matter what. The opportunities will be there, it’s just about pinpointing beatable lines.
Don’t miss any of our NFL Week 3 picks after we went 13-3 on spreads last week
Mark Andrews (BAL) over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
Odds available at Draftkings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Mark Andrews put up a solid Week 1 with 7 targets 5 receptions and 52 yards. He led the entire receiving groups in snaps and targets. The Ravens should welcome JK Dobbins back into the line up this week as he was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice. Dobbins return should come at the expense of Devin Duvernay and possibly Rashod Bateman as the Ravens can rely more on the run, but Andrews never comes off the field in either situation.
The Dolphins graded out the worst in Week 1 against Patriots slot receiver Jakobi Meyers who finished with a team-high 55 yards. Andrews operates primarily out of the slot and this line is well below his 2021 season average of 80 ypg and people will continue to sleep on the Jets defense. I expect Andrews to return to his 2021 form against a Dolphins defense that ranked 24th in coverage and tackling. This is an alt-line play that could become very exciting at 70+ and 80+ if you’re searching for juicier odds. I’m going with a 2-unit play on Andrews in this spot.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens predictions
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) over 40.5 receiving yards (-115)
Odds available at Draftkings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Christian McCaffrey did not have an impressive Week 1, despite all the hype surrounding his return. This is primarily due to playing against a top 10 defense in the Cleveland Browns. They had the best pass rush in Week 1 and ranked top 10 overall in PFF. In Week 2, CMC gets to benefit from facing a bottom 10 defense overall and 30th in coverage in the New York Giants. The Titans’ 3rd-down running back Dontrell Hilliard had the best game of his career, catching 3 passes for 61 yards and 2 TD’s. I expect McCaffrey to put up a big performance in the receiving column. This line of 40.5 is an overreaction to Week 1 and is something he hit in 5/7 games last season. This is worth a 1-unit play from me.
Be sure to check out our full Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants predictions
Mitch Trubisky (PIT) under 20.5 completions (+105)
Odds available at Draftkings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I was very perplexed when I saw this line at first. Trubisky had 21 completions on 38 attempts in Week 1 OT victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on 55% completion percentage. After digging deeper, I found out he had 12 more pass attempts in OT, meaning he through only 26 passes in regulation. When Trubisky was under pressure, he completed 33% of his passes and when blitzed he completed 25%. The Patriots ranked 9th overall in pass rush for Week 1, generating pressure on 28% of total plays. This number should go up against a Steelers offensive line that was questionable heading into the season. I’m going only a 0.5Unit on this play, but the analytics tell me this is great value at plus odds.
Be sure to check out our full New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers predictions
Daniel Jones (NYG) over 22.5 rushing yards (-120)
Odds available at Draftkings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Daniel Jones is another player who gets the benefit of a more favorable opponent in Week 2. Jones had 6 rushes for 25 yards in Week 1 vs the Titans, but was under constant pressure all day. The Titans had one of the best pass rushes in Week 1 and finished with 5 sacks on the day. Against the Carolina Panthers, Jones will face the 2nd worst graded rush defense and tackling defense in all of football. Much attention will be given to Saquon Barkley and the Giants will be missing rookie stand out Wan’Dale Robinson.
I expect Brian Daboll to draw up several planned runs for Jones and if the Panthers tackling is as bad as advertised, we could see Jones explode for large gains. Against the Titans, he averaged 2.57 yards after contact and totaled 18 yards after contact total. Jones is fighting for his career this season and starting 2-0 will go a long way. I’m playing this at 1-unit.
NOTE: One more of my picks from the 1:00 pm slate will be revealed on Sunday morning in our “Wise n’ Shine” email newsletter. Subscribe HERE for free to receive my final favorite prop pick!
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