Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The late slate on Sunday football has fewer games but is a fun time to review which parlays are still alive and make up for any bad beats from the 1pm games. As a fan of a west coast team, I always get excited for the late games as this momentum will carry us into Sunday Night Football. 4pm games are where legends are made. This opening week late should be exciting as 3 of the 4 games have an O/U of 47 or more.
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Treylon Burks over 25.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Rookie WRs have tended to contribute early over the last few years with the success of Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Jaylen Waddle. When I saw the Titans’ rookie WR2 have a line at 25.5 I had to dig into it deeper.
The first-round pick out of Arkansas has been receiving rave reviews in the building and former Titans CB Jason McCourty had the following to say about Burks: “Robert Woods is slated to be the No. 1 receiver in Tennessee, but the Titans have a major role planned for Burks and have been giving him extra reps in the preseason to get him up to speed quickly after a difficult spring.” McCourty went on to state that he will be a huge focal point of the offense and wouldn’t be surprised if he leads all rookie receivers in receptions.
While I couldn’t find a reception line on Burks, the 25.5 is low enough for me to gamble against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari might not suit up this week for Big Blue and the rest of this team will load the box to stop Derrick Henry. I can see Burks getting 5-6 targets and a few deep balls his way. I’m rolling the dice on any WR2 with a line this low.
Be sure to check out our full New York Giants vs Tennessee Titans predictions
Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 61.5 rush+receiving yards (-110)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire took a step back after a very solid rookie season. Year 2 was marred with injuries that really hindered his second half of the season, but CEH started off averaging 85.5 rush+receiving yards through the first 4 games. After the injury, the number dropped down to 56.2. This season, I’m expecting CEH to provide a level of consistency to an offense with a lot of new weapons. While I think he will eventually give lead back duties over to Rutgers rookie Isaiah Pacheco, this Week 1 line is very much to my liking as he has hit this in 15 of 23 career games (65%).
For his career, CEH averages 75.9 rush+receiving yards per game and 105 YPG in Week 1. His stature lends himself to being banged up later in the season, but I love him getting 13-15 carries and 3-5 targets in the passing game this week. This Arizona Cardinals defense ranked 22nd in the league in YPG to opposing running backs, so this is a prime spot for Edwards-Helaire to start strong.
NOTE: One more of my picks from the 4:25 pm slate will be revealed on Sunday morning in our “Wise n’ Shine” email newsletter. Subscribe HERE for free to receive my final favorite prop pick!
Mike Williams over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m expecting this Raiders-Chargers game to have plenty of fireworks in a Week 1 AFC West showdown. Mike Williams really came into his own last season, giving the Chargers a big-play receiver to match Keenan Allen’s consistency in the middle of the field. Williams hit this line in 10/16 games last year including a monster performance against the Raiders, going off for 17 targets, 9 receptions and 119 yards!
Williams averaged 71 YPG and notched 21% target share last season so getting this number under 60 feels like stealing. The Chargers’ offense is very condensed in the sense that Williams/Allen/Ekeler take up most of the targets and I don’t see that changing in 2022 based on their offseason moves. Justin Herbert should continue to ascend and with Keenan Allen in his 30s, it may be time for Williams to establish himself as the WR1 they recently paid him to be.
Be sure to check out our full Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers predictions
Justin Jefferson over 6.5 receptions (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
If Cooper Kupp had a line at 6.5 receptions, would you go over? Yeah, me too. Justin Jefferson jumps into new head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense that puts an emphasis on getting the ball into the hands of its playmakers. If this were another year under Mike Zimmer, I’d still consider this line as Jefferson saw double-digit targets in 10/17 games. Even more fascinating, Jefferson saw double-digit targets in both games against Green Bay last season. I expect O’Connell to draw up specific plays allowing Jefferson to get his hands on the ball early in the route and for him to make plays with his legs. The offense should play a little more up-tempo than we saw under Zimmer and by kickoff I expect this line to be at -115.
The beauty of this new offense for Jefferson is that he will line up all over the field, including the slot. As a disciple of Sean McVay, O’Connell understands the importance of getting your receivers into open space and allowing them to make plays.
Be sure to check out our full Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings predictions
NOTE: One more of my picks from the 4:25 pm slate will be revealed on Sunday morning in our “Wise n’ Shine” email newsletter. Subscribe HERE for free to receive my final favorite prop pick!
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