Keith
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The time has finally come — Conference Championship week. In the AFC, the final 2 teams are the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. As for the NFC, it’s the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers, and that’s the matchup I’m focusing on here. Oddsmakers are expecting plenty of scoring since the total has been set above 50 points, and that has limited the value within the touchdown scorer market. Depending on the sportsbook, you can find 7 players listed with odds at +135 or lower to score a touchdown. Unsurprisingly, both of my two touchdown scorer bets come from those players.
Read our full Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers predictions
Detroit Lions touchdown scorer best bet: Jahmyr Gibbs (+135)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Depending on the sportsbook, you can find Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Amon-Ra St. Brown to score around the same price. That’s not too surprising since those 3 playmakers have been the key to Detroit’s success this season. But of those 3, one player stands out the most. Gibbs has become one of the most dangerous running backs in football in just his rookie season. He’s a powerful runner with excellent hands, so has become another option for Jared Goff through the air. The Alabama product has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games and 6 of the last 7 games.
Although he splits time in the backfield with David Montgomery, Gibbs still gets plenty of touches near the goal line along with checkdowns in the red zone. Plus, the San Francisco defense will be focused on not letting St. Brown beat them in the secondary, which makes me cautious about taking him. I considered Sam LaPorta, but the Niners have several athletic linebackers that are solid in coverage. For those reasons, Gibbs has the best value to score of any Lions player.
San Francisco 49ers touchdown scorer best bet: George Kittle (+110)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
The question on everybody’s mind is the health of Deebo Samuel. San Francisco’s speedy receiver suffered a shoulder injury in the Divisional Round that forced him out of the game and has left him questionable for Sunday’s Championship contest. Without Samuel, the Niners’ offense looks a lot different and much easier to defend. However, considering the importance of this game, it seems unlikely for Samuel to miss it. He will draw plenty of attention from the secondary because of his speed, and that should give George Kittle space over the middle of the field. The tight end led the 49ers in receiving yards last weekend with 81 yards on 4 catches for a touchdown. Kittle may not see the same target share as Deebo, but he does get several big-play opportunities downfield.
He will be facing a Lions secondary that has been shredded in the last few weeks — especially in the playoffs. Detroit has allowed 5 passing touchdowns in 2 playoff games to Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield. With Brock Purdy under center in a game without precipitation, there should be plenty of opportunities through the air, and Kittle will likely benefit from that.
Find out Prop Holliday’s best Lions vs 49ers player prop bet for the NFC Championship Game
