The final game of the Week 10 slate features the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills in upstate New York. Once again, it’s not the most exciting primetime matchup, but I’ve still found some value in the touchdown scorer market. So, let’s dive into my best bets for Monday night, and make sure to also check out our Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills predictions.
Denver Broncos touchdown scorer best bet: Courtland Sutton (+240)
On DraftKings, the five players most likely to score a touchdown based on their odds are all Buffalo players. That says a lot about the Broncos offense. However, there is one Denver player who has been finding the end zone a lot this season, and that’s Courtland Sutton. The SMU alum has become one of Russell Wilson’s favorite targets, and although he may not rack up the yards every game, he does get a lot of red zone looks. Sutton has scored in 3 straight games, 5 in the last 6 games, and 6 of the 8 games this season. He only averages 4 catches per game, but Wilson makes those limited opportunities worth it since he consistently finds Sutton in the end zone.
The Buffalo secondary has been picked on a lot recently without Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White. Those two were the anchors on defense, and without them, the Bills have been susceptible to big plays. Last week, the Buffalo defense allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 348 yards and 2 touchdowns. Before that, Baker Mayfield threw 2 touchdown passes in Buffalo. The Bills have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw at least 2 touchdowns in all 3 games that Milano and White have been off the field. My expectation is for Wilson to spread the ball out while driving downfield before targeting Sutton and Jerry Jeudy to complete the drive. Since he’s scored in 6 of the 8 games this season, there’s excellent value on Sutton to find the end zone in Week 10.
Check out our Broncos vs Bills Same Game Parlay at +1078 odds
Buffalo Bills touchdown scorer best bet: Dalton Kincaid (+200)
In Week 9, my favorite touchdown scorer bet for Sunday Night Football was Dalton Kincaid. Unfortunately, Kincaid did not find the end zone, but I wasn’t discouraged in the slightest. Kincaid led the team in targets, receptions and nearly yards too if it wasn’t for 5 extra yards from Stefon Diggs. The rookie tight end is clearly becoming one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets, and with Dawson Knox out with an injury, the rookie has the chance to develop even more chemistry with Allen. In the last three games without Knox, the rookie has 26 targets, 23 catches, 221 yards and a touchdown. That’s a huge difference from his first 5 games of the season in which Kincaid totaled just 19 targets, 17 catches and 118 yards without a score.
The best part about this matchup is the defense he will be facing. The Denver defense has been terrible at defending tight ends this season. In fact, the Broncos allow the most receiving yards per game to tight ends (71.12). Not only that, but the Broncos also allow the 8th most targets and 6th most receptions, and in total, have allowed 3 touchdowns to tight ends. The Denver defense is already going to have their hands full with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis in the secondary, so those two receivers can be the perfect decoy for Kincaid.
Don’t miss Prop Holliday’s Broncos vs Bills best player prop bets
