Trends, trends and more trends. When considering a pick for a game, it’s always a good idea to see the history of the teams and if any trends are in play. Historical data can tell you a lot about how a team could perform in a certain spot. With Week 4 approaching, here are the 5 best trends to keep in mind for Sunday.
The under is a combined 5-1 between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints this season
This Week 4 matchup between the Buccaneers and the Saints is the only game that features a total below 40 points. Every other game on Sunday and Monday has a total of at least 40, so it’s clear that the oddsmakers are aware of this trend too. In the 6 combined games between these NFC South teams, the under is 5-1. The lone time that the over won was in Tampa Bay’s Week 2 matchup against the Bears, which ended with 44 points when the total was 41. Tampa Bay’s other games combined for 36 and 37 points.
The Saints will likely be without quarterback Derek Carr on Sunday after he suffered a shoulder injury in Week 3 and is expected to be sidelined for a week or two. Having Jameis Winston at quarterback is a bonus for under bettors. While it’s a low total, it still may not be low enough.
The Denver Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games
Unless you live under a rock, you would have seen the final score of Denver’s Week 3 matchup in Miami. The Broncos suffered their third defeat of the year in historic style as they lost 70-20. Obviously, Denver did not cover the spread in that loss! They also failed to cover the spread in their Week 2 loss to the Commanders and their Week 1 loss to the Raiders. But going back even further, the Broncos failed to cover in their last 3 matchups at the end of the 2022 season. That means they have not covered their spread in 6 consecutive games heading into Week 4. But if they were to cover a spread this season, it would be on Sunday.
Denver’s Week 4 matchup is against the Bears, who are also 0-3 and fighting for the title of the worst team in football. I could even see this game ending without a winner and featuring the first tie of the season. Unless you’re a Broncos or Bears fan, you’re probably not going to watch this game. Even then, you still might not.
The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite
Let’s cut to the chase — Bengals QB Joe Burrow is not 100% healthy. Both Burrow and the Bengals have made it clear that his calf injury is still an issue and will continue to be one throughout the season. But even with his calf keeping him from being his normal self, he was able to lead Cincinnati to its first win of the season against the Rams in Week 3. Burrow’s calf injury has changed the way the Bengals have looked on offense because they’re no longer taking as many deep shots to Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins — it’s quicker throws that get the ball out of Burrow’s hand faster.
Their Week 4 matchup takes them to Tennessee to take on Derrick Henry and the Titans, and Cincinnati is a 2.5-point favorite. Is an injured Burrow going to be enough for the Bengals to get back to .500? I’m not sure. All I know is that the Bengals aren’t the same team we’re used to.
The Buffalo Bills are 7-0 in their last 7 games against the Miami Dolphins at home
The most anticipated Week 4 matchup takes place in Buffalo between the Dolphins and Bills. Miami is putting its undefeated record on the line, and the winner of this game will take control of the AFC East. Everybody knows how the Dolphins did last week and how their 50-point win was special, but the Broncos’ defense compared to the Bills’ defense is like night and day. Tua Tagovailoa shouldn’t have Tyreek Hill wide-open downfield several times this week and Raheem Mostert will find it more difficult to waltz into the end zone like he did in Week 3, but I think Miami knows that.
However, history is not on their side as they’ve lost their last 7 straight games, and 11 of their last 12, in Buffalo. Miami’s last game in Buffalo was in the wild-card round last season, and Skylar Thompson was the quarterback in the Dolphins’ 3-point loss. So, are you backing the undefeated team with the red-hot offense? Or are you siding with the historical trend of Miami’s woes in Buffalo?
The Baltimore Ravens are 0-13 in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record
When I first saw this trend, I didn’t believe it. I went back through Baltimore’s 2022 schedule and was surprised to see that it was right. The Ravens have lost 13 straight games against teams with a winning record. That historic trend is in play on Sunday since their opponents, the Cleveland Browns, are 2-1 this season. Baltimore is also 2-1 this season with its wins coming against the Texans and Bengals, while the lone loss came from the Colts last week. Lamar Jackson has been great so far, but the loss of J.K. Dobbins is hurting this offense.
The Ravens will travel to Cleveland in Week 4 to take on a Browns team that already has two double-digit wins against the Bengals and Titans. Is this the season that the Browns flip the script on the Ravens? We’ll find out on Sunday, but oddsmakers are expecting this trend to continue since Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite.
Check out our NFL player prop bets and TD scorer picks for Week 4
