This Week 14 matchup takes us to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania as the Baltimore Ravens take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, this matchup will look a little bit different as Lamar Jackson will be sidelined with an injury. Our expert has analyzed this game and has chosen two picks including a best bet for the contest, so let’s get right into it.
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NFL Week 14 Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction
It’s an AFC North battle on Sunday as the Ravens take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh. It will be a battle of young quarterbacks as Tyler Huntley will be under center for Baltimore and Kenny Picket will continue to call the shots for Pittsburgh. This game is an important one for the Ravens as the Bengals have been creeping up behind them in the division, so a win would go a long way without Lamar Jackson in. It’s an exciting divisional matchup, and our expert has two picks for the game.
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers spread, odds & betting lines
Point spread: Ravens +2, Steelers -2
Total points over/under: 36.5 points
Money line odds: Ravens +125, Steelers -125
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- Browns vs Bengals predictions
- Eagles vs Giants predictions
- Jets vs Bills predictions
- Chiefs vs Broncos predictions
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers expert picks
We’ve got 2 smart NFL picks for this week’s game between the Ravens and Steelers.
Ravens vs Steelers point spread pick: Ravens +2 (-110)
Considering this lookahead line was Ravens -5 last week, the market is telling us the gap between Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley is about 7.5 points. Personally, I think that’s a touch too high, which is why I think there is some value with Baltimore at 3. Obviously, this would have significantly less value at 2.5, and would likely be downgraded to a 1-star play, so make sure you shop around for the best price. Huntley is no stranger to this situation, having a similar scenario play out last season when Jackson also missed several games down the stretch due to injury. Huntley’s first start was memorable, a 16-13 road win over the Bears where he led the team on a 72-yard TD drive at the end of regulation with several big throws. That was Huntley’s only win during his 5-game relief appearance, but all 5 games were decided by 3 points or less.
Huntley’s heroics continued last Sunday, leading a 91-yard game-winning drive in the final minutes of the 4th quarter against the Broncos after Jackson departed with injury. Long story short, I don’t think the moment will be too big for him. This week, however, presents a different challenge on the road against a bitter rival with a much more competent QB than Russell Wilson. The Steelers have trended up since the bye going 3-1, with their only loss being by one score to the surging Bengals despite leading by 3 at the half. Since Week 10, Pittsburgh is 8th in EPA/play on offense and 9th on defense after grading out 28th and 32nd in those categories respectively during Kenny Pickett’s first four starts in Weeks 5-8. The Ravens defense has also seen an uptick in efficiency since the addition of Roquan Smith. Baltimore is 2nd in EPA/play and has the 2nd best success rate against the run since Week 9, so it’s fair to say this could be the toughest test of Pickett’s young career.
Be sure to check out our full Ravens vs Steelers predictions
Ravens vs Steelers over/under totals pick: Over 36.5 (-110)
If this total closes at 36 or lower, it will be the lowest total in the NFL since 2019, which ironically enough also featured these two teams, with the Ravens winning 28-10 and the game going over the total of 35. Since 2005, when the total closes at 36 or lower, the over is hitting at 54.4% (135-116-6) with about a 6% ROI, so it’s fair to start your handicap there and see if there are any logical reasons to back the trend. Well, Kenny Pickett seems to be looking more and more comfortable with each passing week. Since the Steelers bye in Week 9, the offense is 8th in EPA/play and the team is averaging almost 24 points per game. Tyler Huntley will take control of a Ravens offense that has been very inconsistent over the last month or so as Lamar Jackson has struggled with his accuracy. The floor is definitely lower with Huntley at the helm, especially in the run game, but perhaps his short-term ceiling isn’t as low as the numbers suggest, with about a 7.5-point move from the starting QB to the backup.
The Steelers will likely keep things simple and play their base man coverage, which they play about 42% of the time, the 5th highest rate in the league. Baltimore has faced the 6th most man cover looks of any team this season, so the offense should have no issues diagnosing. I detailed Huntley’s heroic past performances when filling in for Jackson, and I don’t expect this moment to be too big for him. If Huntley’s transition goes smoother than the oddsmakers expect, then this game should sneak over with Baltimore doing most of the heavy lifting.
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Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers expert predictions
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