Matthew Lowrimore
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Best Bet – Baltimore Ravens Over 8.5 wins (+105)
Worst Bet – Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl 54 (+3300)
The Ravens improved on their 2017 record of 9-7 and missing the playoffs by going 10-6 and winning the AFC North in 2018. With the Steelers likely to take a step back and the Bengals rebuilding, the Ravens have a great opportunity to repeat as division champs.
The Ravens’ offseason ended up being hard on their roster as they lost guys like C.J. Mosley, Eric Weddle, John Brown, Terrell Suggs, Za’Darius Smith, Michael Crabtree, and Joe Flacco. The trade of Flacco cleared the way for Lamar Jackson to take over under center moving forward. Until their playoff loss to the Chargers, Jackson was having a great season and his ability to run and throw makes him a rare threat. Add in guys like Marquise Brown, a rookie wide receiver out of Oklahoma, and you have an offense that has plenty of playmaking ability.
The biggest offensive weapon added this offseason outside of the draft is Mark Ingram. Last season Ingram rushed for 645 yards and 6 touchdowns with the New Orleans Saints. He was suspended for the first four games of the season, so he only played in 12 games. He can provide depth at running back for the Ravens and can be the bruiser they need inside the red zone. With how much the Ravens like to run the ball, adding Ingram gives them a big boost.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Ravens added safety Earl Thomas, which was perhaps their best addition this offseason. His presence on defense will make opponents hesitate to throw his way, which will allow the pass rush to get to the QB quicker.
Another big change for this Baltimore team is their offensive coordinator. The Ravens announced after the season that they would promote Greg Roman to the role of offensive coordinator and that Marty Mornhinweg would not be returning to the coaching staff. Roman was previously the tight ends coach for the Ravens as well. Roman has had a lot of success in his NFL coaching career, appearing in several NFC Championship games with the 49ers, and he appeared in Super Bowl 47 against the Ravens.
Baltimore Ravens Win Total: O/U 8.5 Wins
The Ravens won 10 games last year, which was good enough to win the division. With Jackson starting the entire season, I see at least 9 games the Ravens should win. Baltimore went 6-2 at home last season, meaning if they can replicate that mark, all they need is 3 wins on the road to cash the over. Other than a few games, their schedule looks very winnable, which is why the over looks like the play here. 8.5 wins seems too low for a team that just won their division. Even with the newly built Cleveland team in their way, I really like the over for the Ravens this season.
Odds to make the playoffs: Yes +180, No -220
The Ravens will be looking to make the playoffs for the second year in a row. We know that other than the top teams in the AFC, it is not the strongest conference. I see the Ravens fighting for both a division title or a wild-card spot in the new season. Lamar Jackson should look much sharper with a year under his belt and should make better decisions in the dying moments of games.
On the other hand, everyone has film on Jackson now, so they will have a better idea of what the Ravens will be trying to do. As a second-year player, I believe Jackson should be able to adjust to this and make fewer mistakes.
The defense will be interesting to watch after losing a lot of their pass rushers. Not knowing where the pass rush will come from is concerning, but the Ravens can still rely on their secondary to make a ton of big plays. If the Ravens can just have a decent pass rush this year, they will be able to get the stops they need and will have a real chance to play in the playoffs. My lean is on the ‘Yes’ for this prop, but at +180, this is more of a stay away. Especially stay away from the ‘No’ on this prop. The Ravens have the talent to navigate the mediocre AFC, so laying -220 is a big no.
Odds to win AFC North: +275
The AFC North feels like it is wide open this season, which could make it hard for the Ravens to go back to back. The Browns are still an unknown because of their lack of chemistry together, and the Steelers losing some of their best offensive weapons could set them back. Then you have the Bengals, who are talented but have plenty of injury concerns and an unproven head coach.
As for the Ravens, they look like the most complete team. They have a solid defense and an offense that can beat you with the running game or with their deep threats. I like the Ravens to have a shot at repeating with their young quarterback and newly acquired offensive and defensive weapons. If you do not want to bet on the Browns, the Ravens would be a good value play at plus money to be crowned AFC North champs.
Odds to win AFC Championship: +1600
The Ravens are counting on too many young players, so an AFC Championship appearance or win for that matter seems like too much to ask for. The Patriots and Chiefs are too good, so do not give your money away betting on a prop like this. While the Ravens could sneak into the playoffs and maybe win one game, they will not represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Stay away from this prop even at the odds listed.
Odds to win Super Bowl 54: +3300
Same thing here. The Ravens are not ready to take that next step, so stay away from this prop. The Ravens will not be in Super Bowl 54.
