Back to the Futures: Best NFL futures bets, odds & predictions following the Week 8 NFL action from betting expert Jared Smith

Now that we are in season, the goal of this column each week is to sift through the risers and fallers and identify value opportunities in the market by implementing a “dollar cost averaging” strategy. These smaller investments over time should reduce the impact of volatility on our portfolio over the long haul. I will also identify teams to avoid who might be peaking at the wrong time.

Just like prior columns, we will be aided by the insight of Zachary Lucas, the head oddsmaker at TwinSpires. Any official wagers I make will be clearly stated and added to the official portfolio at the bottom and as always you can track all futures bets in real time on my spreadsheet.

Stock up: San Francisco 49ers

A team that won and its odds are still in a reasonable range to buy

The 49ers took the defending Super Bowls champs’ toughest punch and countered with their best performance of the season. Sunday’s win over the Rams is even more impressive if you consider they were coming off the bye and head coach Sean McVay had 2 weeks to prepare for a banged-up San Francisco defense.

“CMC is a nice upgrade and with them 3-0 in the division and only 1 back of the Seahawks, they are in a good spot,” Lucas said of the Niners. “I truly believe they’re the best team in that division and the price on them will only get worse.”

So far I have made 2 separate buys on the Niners to win the NFC West, both detailed below. It’s an investment that totals 1 unit at +155. Considering they are currently the odds-on favorite hovering around -140, I obviously feel really good about this position and don’t feel the need to add this week — especially with San Francisco idle.

Sell high: Minnesota Vikings

A team that won but we are not convinced it is for real just yet

The odds say Minnesota is a runaway train in the NFC North with around a 90% implied win probability based on the current odds available. The good news is we are holding a small Vikings position at +140 from back in early September; the bad news they might be holding on for dear life down the stretch based on how they keep winning games.

“We discussed earlier how the Giants/Jets are not as good as their record and I feel the same with the Vikings,” Lucas explained. “Look at who they’ve played: barely beat the Lions and Saints, who are below average, and if Arizona was properly coached (it) could have escaped with a win Sunday. The real Vikings will be on full display during that Bills/Cowboys/Pats stretch and I’d be shocked if they do better than 1-2.”

The analytics say Minnesota is about an average team, and Kirk Cousins is grading out around the same. That’s okay when you play in a very below-average division with bottom-feeder teams like the Lions and Bears plus the Packers, who are playing well below expectations. But when you step up in class, that’s when average teams get exposed. Keep Minnesota on your radar to fade in the coming weeks — just not this Sunday against the Commanders.

Buy low: Nobody

A team that lost but we are still high on overall, thus creating more value in the market long term

It was one of those strangely satisfying weeks in the NFL when all of the bad teams lost. Even the average teams that lost like the Packers or Bengals are trending in a negative direction because of injuries or other outside factors, which removes any value betting them in the futures market.

“I don’t see anyone who fits this bill,” Lucas said of buying low potential.

When you are making long-term investments on teams, price and timing are essential. If neither of those factors are meeting expectations, it’s vital to show discipline and wait for a better opportunity.

Free fall: The entire NFC besides the Eagles & 49ers

Teams that lost in such a catastrophic way that it’s hard to see them recovering in the short term

Bucs, Rams, Packers…. Take your pick. It’s even more surprising considering that group contains the last 2 Super Bowl winners and the last 2 MVPs.

“All teams with pretty high expectations going into the year and are already out of contention, in my opinion, for a Super Bowl,” Lucas assessed. “Bucs with an aging QB and terrible head coach, Rams with a predictable offense and a defense that has seen better days and Packers with no WRs to help Rodgers.”

I think you can also throw the Giants into this mix despite their 6-2 record. They finally showed their true colors on Sunday in Seattle, as Daniel Jones finished 28th out of 28 qualifying QBs in passing efficiency.

This Week’s Portfolio:

None

Season Portfolio: