Back to the Futures: Best NFL futures bets, odds & predictions following the Week 6 NFL action from betting expert Jared Smith

NFL underdogs went 6-8 straight up last week and $100 underdog ML bettors were up $460, representing a 32.9% ROI (return on investment). In other words, it was a volatile week for the standings and the markets alike.

Now that we are in season, the goal of this column each week is to sift through the risers and fallers and identify value opportunities in the market by implementing a “dollar cost averaging” strategy. That might sound complicated, but it’s basically just making small investments throughout the season which should reduce the impact of volatility on our portfolio over the long haul.

Just like prior columns, we will be graced with the analysis and insight of Zachary Lucas, the head oddsmaker at TwinSpires. Any official wagers I make will be clearly stated and added to the official portfolio at the bottom and as always you can track all futures bets in real time on my spreadsheet.

Stock up: Cincinnati Bengals

A team that won and their odds are still in a reasonable range to buy

Since starting 0-2, the Bengals have climbed back to the .500 mark following a gritty win Sunday in New Orleans. That coupled with the Ravens loss to the Giants slashed Cincinnati’s odds to win the AFC North from +300 to +200 at PointsBet, implying about an 8.5% increase in probability.

“This is a team that is still very much in the race,” said Lucas. “Started out poorly but they’ve strung a few wins together and while I don’t see them making a run in the playoffs they could be worth a wager to win the division.”

I already have a small position on the Bengals to win the AFC North at +330 that was recommended after Week 1, but I think it makes sense to add to it this week. Cincinnati should be favored or a slight underdog in each of its next 5 games against the Falcons, Browns, Panthers, Steelers and Titans. Meanwhile, the Ravens have 3 tough spots to navigate during the stretch with road games at the Bucs, Saints and Jags.

Sell high: New York Giants

A team that won but we are not convinced they are for real just yet

I’m wildly impressed with the coaching trinity of Brian Daboll, Mike Kafka and Wink Martindale, who have basically held this Giants season together with glue and duct tape. Daniel Jones has the fewest completions of 20 yards or more in the NFL and virtually all rookies surrounding him at the skill positions. However, a healthy Saquon Barkley and improving offensive line has allowed Big Blue to look like a contender after 6 games.

“It might be too early because look at their god awful schedule coming up, and maybe I am completely off and they are a team of destiny but I am not sold on this Giants team,” added Lucas. “Danny Dimes with a bunch of misfit receivers surely can’t keep winning can they?”

Timing is everything here. Following a tough game in Jacksonville this week, the Giants face the Seahawks, Texans and Lions before the return game against the Cowboys at Jerry World with presumably a healthy Dak Prescott under center. I think the better move right now is to bet on the Jags this week and then wait on making a play in the futures market until after this relatively easy stretch. More on that game in my best bets column later this week….

Buy low: Kansas City Chiefs

A team that lost but we are still high on overall, thus creating more value in the market long-term

This might be our last chance at getting Kansas City at a reasonable price before the stretch run. The Chiefs’ odds to win the Super Bowl dipped from +550 to +700 on PointsBet in the aftermath of Sunday’s loss to the Bills, implying about a 3% decrease in win probability.

“Their defense is banged up and when you have Mahomes you always have a shot,” added Lucas. “I’d be interested to see a rematch with both teams fully healthy.”

It’s a tough task facing Josh Allen without several starters in the secondary, which is what Kansas City was forced to do on Sunday. Considering the Chiefs were hovering right around this price to win the Super Bowl when the season started and the competition in the AFC West has dropped off dramatically since then, I think this is a good week to open a small position.

Free fall: Denver Broncos

A team that lost in such a catastrophic way that it’s hard to see them recovering in the short-term

Considering how well the defense has played (2nd in EPA/play) and how many weapons Russell Wilson has around him, there is really no excuse for this Broncos team to be 2-4 and virtually drawing dead in the difficult AFC postseason race.

“Hackett needs to be fired yesterday,” Lucas said. “The play-calling is beyond bad. Shotgun on 3rd-and-1 in OT with a QB who is 3-of-11 for 15 yards in the 2nd half…. If it wasn’t for their defense they may be winless.”

Reports surfaced Tuesday about Wilson’s potential hamstring injury. Throw in a couple of tricky home games against the Jets and Jags followed by a trip to Nashville for a game against the Titans and it’s fair to say the worst is yet to come.

This Week’s Portfolio:

Bengals to win AFC North +210 (risk 0.5u at Caesars)
Chiefs to win Super Bowl +800 (risk 0.5u at SuperBook)

Season Portfolio: