Back to the Futures: Best NFL futures bets, odds & predictions following the Week 5 NFL action from betting expert Jared Smith

Time flies when you’re having fun!

NFL Week 6 means we are almost one-third of the way through the regular season as the contenders begin to separate themselves from the pretenders. 

Now that we’re in-season, the goal of this column each week is to sift through the risers and fallers and identify value opportunities in the market by implementing a “dollar cost averaging” strategy. That might sound complicated, but it’s basically just making small investments throughout the season which should reduce the impact of volatility on our portfolio over the long haul. 

Just like prior columns, we will be graced with the analysis and insight of Zachary Lucas, the head oddsmaker at TwinSpires. Any official wagers I make will be clearly stated and added to the official portfolio at the bottom, and as always, you can track all futures bets in real time on my spreadsheet. 

Stock up: Baltimore Ravens

A team that won and their odds are still in a reasonable range to buy

If you read our futures column last week you know we liked the Ravens as a “buy low” candidate, which proved to be a solid investment since they didn’t cover the spread but still managed to eke out a win. The victory improved Baltimore’s AFC North win probability by about 15-20%, with odds moving from around +100 to -200. 

“They finally won a close game,” added Lucas. “I really believe if they can stay healthy they’re a top contender. They have some great weapons, an underrated defense, and great special teams. They have a very easy November schedule which they should take advantage of and we’ll see their futures price drop.”

The current Ravens in-season win total is 10.5 at most shops with juice to the over, virtually no change from prior to Week 1. At 3-2, that means they have to go at least 8-4 down the stretch in order to cash the over. The lookahead numbers project Baltimore to be favored in all but 3 of their games for the rest of the season (Week 8 at Bucs; Week 15 at Browns; Week 18 at Bengals). 

If the Ravens take care of business as a road favorite this week against the Giants, I can see this number rising to 11.5 next week.  Also keep an eye on rookie EDGE David Ojabo who returned to practice this week and could provide a boost to the Baltimore defense in the second half of the regualr season. 

Sell high: New York Giants

A team that won but we’re not convinced they’re for real just yet

Speaking of the Giants, give credit to HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka for making chicken salad out of chicken excrement, as the saying goes. This is not an overly talented team on either side of the ball outside of Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones has the fewest amount of 20+ yard completions in the NFL and all 4 of their wins this season (Titans, Panthers, Bears, Packers) are against teams outside the top 15 in schedule-adjusted DVOA.

“They will be humbled next week vs Ravens when they finally face some real competition. Daboll has done a great job with what he has there’s no question about that but they clearly don’t have the talent to sustain this pace they’re on.”

The current Giants in-season win total is hovering around 8.5, up from 7.5 before the season started. That means they have to go 4-8 or worse down the stretch for the under to cash. That’s a tough bet to make right now, considering the Giants should be favored or just a slight underdog in 4 straight games (at Jags, at Seahawks, vs Texans, vs Lions) following a tough matchup against the Ravens this week.

There might come a time during that cupcake stretch in November where we get a 9.5, at which point I would consider betting under.

Buy low: Cleveland Browns

A team that lost but we are still high on overall, thus creating more value in the market long-term

If you told Browns fans their offense would be top 5 in EPA/play over the first 5 games of the season with Jacoby Brissett under center and a favorable early schedule, most probably would have expected the team to have a better record than 2-3. But that’s where we sit, thanks to a terrible defense and even worse game management in the 4th quarter by HC Kevin Stefanski and DC Joe Woods. 

“You could argue they should be 5-0,” added Lucas. “I know we hate him but this team with Watson will be a threat.”

Jacoby Brissett has the 9th highest EPA+CPOE of any QB in the first half of games this season, but his production trails off a bit in the 2nd half. If you think Deshaun Watson’s return will add that extra explosive element to the offense that’s lacking from Brissett, especially in crunch time, then you could make worse bets right now than the Browns to make the playoffs at around +250, considering it was between +130 and +150 before Week 1.

In theory, I like the move, but when I flash forward in my mind to the return of Watson, I see a lot of variance, especially if the Browns defense continues to struggle. The AFC is a jumbled mess this season outside of the Bills and Chiefs so the opportunity for Cleveland to sneak into the playoffs is certainly there, but I need to see how Watson looks first and if his return provides any spark at all to the rest of the team. 

Free fall: Los Angeles Rams

A team that lost in such a catastrophic way that it’s hard to see them recovering in the short-term

The Super Bowl hangover has turned into a full-blown bender. The source of the problem is the trenches, especially the offensive line, which is banged up and has more holes than my favorite artisanal cheese. The Rams OL is creating the 3rd fewest line yards in the NFL and is a bottom 10 unit in both pass block and run block win rates. 

“Their playbook has been exposed,” added Lucas. “Stafford has never looked worse, and the defense isn’t looking like the elite unit we saw last season. I can’t see them doing any damage this year.”

The schedule doesn’t get any easier down the stretch with games against the 49ers, Bucs, Saints and Chiefs all on deck over the next 6 weeks. They should beat the Panthers as a double-digit favorite this week, which sets up for a potential fade spot next week in the futures market.

The specific bet I’m targeting here is for the Rams to miss the playoffs. Keep them on your radar. 

This Week’s Portfolio:

Ravens o10.5 Wins -140 (risk 1.4u at Caesars)

Season Portfolio: