Back to the Futures: Best NFL futures bets, odds & predictions following the Week 2 NFL action from betting expert Jared Smith

What a wild Week 2. Sometimes I marvel at our hubris in trying to predict this madness on a weekly basis, but it also makes me appreciate the futures market even more. While the hold percentage is higher than other markets, futures can help mitigate some of that game-to-game volatility by elongating your time horizon and buying teams for 4 months instead of 4 hours.

Now that we’re in-season, the goal of this column each week is to sift through the risers and fallers and identify value opportunities in the market by implementing a “dollar cost averaging” strategy. That might sound complicated, but it’s basically just making small investments throughout the season which should reduce the impact of volatility on our portfolio over the long haul.

Just like prior columns, any official wagers I make will be clearly stated and added to the official portfolio at the bottom. You can also track all futures bets on my spreadsheet.

Stock up: Miami Dolphins

A team that won and their odds are still in a reasonable range to buy

The Dolphins had the highest EPA/play of any offense in Week 2 and Tua is currently grading out as the 3rd most efficient QB in the NFL, just behind Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

“This offense is fun to watch,” said TwinSpires Director of Retail Sports Zachary Lucas. “Waddle/Hill might be the deadliest WR duo in the league. If they can stay healthy, watch out.”

One of those key injuries is CB Byron Jones, who will be eligible to come off the PUP list after Week 4. Overall the defense has been disappointing without him, ranked 22nd in EPA/play and allowing a 56.5% success rate on dropbacks, the 4th worst mark in the league.

Another reason to be patient with buying Miami long-term is their looming matchup with the Bills this Sunday, a game that will go a long way in determining who will have the early inside track to win the AFC East.

If you dabble with Dolphins futures this week, just keep in mind that Sunday’s result will be a major catalyst in which way the market tilts next week. Personally, I’m passing this week.

We’ll have picks for EVERY NFL game this season!

Sell high: Tampa Bay Bucs

A team that won, but we’re not convinced they’re for real just yet

The Bucs needed a brawl on the field to finally wake up out of their doldrums Sunday in New Orleans. It was a positive result in the win column, but we have serious doubts this team has staying power as a contender, especially in the short term considering their injury problems on offense.

“Their defense is for real but do you really think Brady is going to be able to keep up with the elite teams of this league? Just like last year this team is very overrated and I’ll be looking to fade them soon when the books inflate their lines,” added Lucas.

The defense will be tested in the next 2 weeks with tough home matchups against the Packers and Chiefs. The Bucs are a short favorite this week against Green Bay, and will likely be favored the following week against Kansas City as well. Both are decent fade opportunities.

Buy low: Los Angeles Chargers

A team that lost but we are still high on overall, thus creating more value in the market long-term

The Chargers went into full Charger-mode in the 2nd half against the Chiefs, and left Arrowhead empty-handed for the first time in the last 2 years. Make no mistake, this team is still primed for a playoff run if they can somehow figure out a way to win close games.

“They played a tough KC team without their top wide receiver. They have a great spot against a Jags team next week feeling good after their blowout win vs Colts,” added Lucas.

Tremendous point by Zachary. LA’s loss last Thursday coupled with Jacksonville’s upset win over Indy on Sunday is setting us up for another great individual game buy-low opportunity, similar to Seahawks/Niners last week. More on Jags/Chargers later this week in my best bets column.

Free fall: Las Vegas Raiders

A team that lost in such a catastrophic way that it’s hard to see them recovering in the short-term

I was skeptical of the Raiders coming into the season after a much-hyped offseason that failed to address a glaring weakness, the offensive line. Nothing has changed yet this season as Derek Carr has already been sacked six times in two games.

“Up 20-0 at home against a team that looked horrific Week 1. I’m not a Josh McDaniels/Derek Carr believer,” added Lucas.

It’s not wise to bet against the house in Vegas, but in this case I think it’s fair game to fade the Raiders in the short term.

This Week’s Portfolio:

None

2022 Season Portfolio: