Everyone take a deep breath.
Week 1 in the NFL is our first glimpse under the hood after months of preparation, so it’s easy to overreact to what we saw. However, it’s important to keep things in perspective as the results were just roughly 5% of a 17-game regular season sample size.
Now that we’re in season, the goal of this column each week is to sift through the risers and fallers and identify value opportunities in the market by implementing a “dollar cost averaging” strategy. That might sound complicated, but it’s basically just making small investments throughout the season, which should reduce the impact of volatility on our portfolio over the long haul.
Just like prior columns, any official wagers I make will be clearly stated and added to the official portfolio at the bottom. You can also track all futures bets on my spreadsheet.
Stock up: Minnesota Vikings
This is a team that impressed us on Sunday, and their odds are still in a reasonable range to buy.
Heading into Week 1, the Packers were odds on favorites to win the NFC North. Green Bay dropped from -165 to +115 at Pointsbet while the Vikings surged from +210 to +130, implying over a 10% increase in win probability.
“(Justin) Jefferson is going to cook a lot of corners all season long,” said TwinSpires Director of Retail Trading Zachary Lucas. “If Cook can stay healthy that will be their division to lose. Their new 3-4, two high safety defense looked great too, keeping the Packers to 7 points which is the fewest a Rodgers-led offense has ever scored in their rivalry.”
I think the most effective strategy at this point is to start a small position on the Vikings to win the NFC North. Another decent move right now could be betting over 9.5 wins in-season, a menu item more sportsbooks are offering these days. I chose the former, with more details below.
Find out how the best week of NFL picks in Pickswise history happened
Sell high: New Orleans Saints & Chicago Bears
These are teams that won on Sunday, but we’re not convinced they’re for real just yet.
“The Bears were dominated in the first half and then the weather picked up and it became a slop fest. I’m not buying the hype,” added Lucas.
Chicago’s odds were cut from +2000 to +1000 to win the NFC North at PointsBet, implying almost a 5% increase in win probability. Meanwhile, the Saints’ odds remained unchanged to win the NFC South, staying at +300 despite a thrilling last-second win.
“Saints looked flat. Their O line was dominated by the Falcons’ pass rush. Falcons had a few bad turnovers near the end there and suddenly went soft on D or that one was over,” added Lucas.
Clearly, we will be avoiding both of these teams in the futures market this week.
Buy low: San Francisco 49ers & Cincinnati Bengals
These are teams that lost on Sunday, but we are still high on overall, thus creating more value in the market for us to buy long term.
“The Bengals had 5 turnovers and still had multiple opportunities to win,” added Lucas.
Cincinnati’s odds to win the AFC North dropped from +150 to +310 at PointsBet, implying over a 15% drop in win probability, which feels like an overreaction. I will be opening a small position on the Bengals this week, further detailed below.
“The 49ers were moving the ball, had a missed kick and some sloppy turnovers due to the weather. Getting Kittle back will be big. Not overly concerned with the loss of Elijah Mitchell. Trey Lance getting more reps will help,” added Lucas.
San Francisco’s odds to win the NFC West dipped from +125 to +175, implying over an 8% drop in win probability. The Rams and Cardinals also losing resulted in a smaller shift against San Francisco than expected in the market. Also, I’m not fully ready to push chips into the middle on Trey Lance long-term. That being said, their matchup against the Seahawks this week sets up for a good buy spot. More on that later this week in my best bets column.
Check out our NFL picks — we went 13-3 against the spread in Week 1!
Free fall: Dallas Cowboys
This is a team that lost on Sunday in such a catastrophic way that it’s hard to see them recovering in the short-term, thus not placing any value on them in the futures market.
“Dak being out is a massive loss. Bucs are no pushover but their offense looked a lot worse than in previous years. Their defense should keep them competitive but they’ll struggle vs teams above .500,” added Lucas.
The Cowboys’ odds to win the NFC East plummeted from +145 to +500 at PointsBet, implying almost a 25% drop in win probability. It’s impossible to predict what will happen in the short-term under Cooper Rush, or even if Jerry Jones will make a move for a QB. Hard pass.
This Week’s Portfolio:
Vikings to win the NFC North +140 (0.5u at Caesars)
Bengals to win the AFC North +330 (0.5u at Caesars)
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