Ricky Dimon
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Unlike the case with the men’s Australian Open, there is plenty of parity when it comes to the women. Iga Swiatek may be the clear favorite, but it’s not like she is Novak Djokovic — she hasn’t won the Australian Open 9 times. In fact, she has never won it! Only 2 women in the 2023 field have ever lifted the trophy Down Under and only Sofia Kenin has done it since the start of 2014. Two-time champion Victoria Azarenka is well past her prime and Kenin has plunged to #280 in the rankings, so it’s safe to say we are going to have a first-time Aussie Open winner on our hands.
With the season’s first Grand Slam set to begin on Monday (Sunday evening United States time), it’s time to break down the odds and take a look at my best bets.
Australian Open women’s singles odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek +225
Aryna Sabalenka +750
Caroline Garcia +1200
Jessica Pegula +1200
Ons Jabeur +1400
Coco Gauff +1600
Belinda Bencic +2000
Maria Sakkari +2000
Barbora Krejcikova +2200
Elena Rybakina +2200
Veronika Kudermetova +2800
Paula Badosa +3500
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3-star value play: Jessica Pegula (+1200)
This is always a big time of year in the Pegula household, as Jessica is one of the top title contenders at the Australian Open and the Buffalo Bills are now regularly in the Super Bowl mix (Terry, Jessica’s father, owns the team). Pegula is a 2-time Australian Open quarterfinalist and she reached the quarters at 3 of the 4 Grand Slams last season. At 28 years old and #3 in the world, she looks poised to take the next step. Pegula kicked off her 2023 campaign by leading the United States to victory at the United Cup team competition, compiling a 4-1 record including a 6-2, 6-2 rout of Swiatek. The American finds herself in a difficult top half of the Aussie Open draw, but as that result against Swiatek indicates it may not matter who is on the other side of the net.
2-star value play: Caroline Garcia (+1200)
I’m looking at the bottom half of the bracket for the rest of my picks. After all, the top half not only includes Swiatek, Pegula and Azarenka but also Coco Gauff, Paula Badosa, Danielle Collins, reigning Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina and 2021 U.S. Open winner Emma Raducanu. Garcia may have to face Leylah Fernandez in the second round, but the Frenchwoman otherwise has a great draw. She is coming off the best season of her career in which she captured a huge title in Cincinnati, reached the U.S. Open semifinals and then lifted the trophy at the prestigious year-end championship. It should be full steam ahead for Garcia in 2023.
1-star value play: Ons Jabeur (+1400)
It’s not often that the #2 player in the world can fly under the radar a bit, but as +1400 odds indicate that is just what Jabeur is doing. The Tunisian’s 2022 fall swing was unspectacular and she lost last week in Adelaide to world #102 Linda Noskova, which explains the relative malaise around her. However, I can’t look past the fact that Jabeur finished runner-up at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. She positively thrives on the big stage, so there is no reason why she can’t get over the hump and win a Grand Slam for the first time. When you factor a very favorable draw into her Aussie Open equation, +1400 is value I cannot pass up.
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