Ricky Dimon
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We are approaching the business end of the Australian Open. Monday marks the end of the fourth round, which means the quarterfinal lineup will be set when the order of play concludes. Among those continuing their title quests are Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev and Victoria Azarenka.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 9 schedule for the season’s first Grand Slam.
Parlay: Victoria Azarenka over Dayana Yastremska and Alexander Zverev ML over Cameron Norrie (-133)
The top half of the women’s draw is in absolute shambles. A whole host of seeds had already exited and then world #1 Iga Swiatek lost to Linda Noskova on Saturday night. The door to a final appearance is now completely wide open, and Azarenka has to be considered the favorite to capitalize. She has won the Australian Open twice and even at 34 years old is looking like she could win it again. Azarenka boasts a 6-1 record so far this season with a loss only to world #2 Aryna Sabalenka. On Saturday the Belarusian beat Jelena Ostapenko, a former French Open winner, in impressive 6-1, 7-5 fashion. Dayana Yastremska is playing well, too, but she is 0-2 lifetime against Azarenka – with both losses coming on a hard court and both in the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, Zverev is sweeping his head-to-head series with Cameron Norrie 4-0 at the ATP level – including 8-0 in total sets. The German is coming off an easy win over Alex Michelsen, whereas Norrie needed 9 total sets in his last 2 outings against Giulio Zeppieri and Casper Ruud. Zverev should roll.
Elina Svitolina ML over Linda Noskova (-150)
Elina Svitolina probably expected to see Swiatek on the other side of the net in round 4, but instead it’s Noskova. Suddenly the Ukrainian becomes the favorite to reach the quarterfinals in this section of the bracket – and that is probably just what she’ll do. The 29-year-old has been to 10 Grand Slam quarterfinals, including semifinals on 3 occasions. She obviously has a massive edge in experience over Noskova, a 19-year-old Czech. Although Noskova’s upset of Swiatek was impressive, the top-seeded Pole was playing nowhere near her normal level. Swiatek, who should have lost to Danielle Collins in the previous round (trailed 4-1 in the third set) seemed be dealing with a minor knee injury. Whatever the case, it’s never easy to follow up such a monumental result – especially for a teenager. This is a huge stage for Noskova, so the veteran should have a clear edge.
Arthur Cazaux +1.5 sets over Hubert Hurkacz (+130)
Who is Arthur Cazaux? Well, it’s a name you should get used to if you plan of following tennis in the coming years. The 21-year-old Frenchman was one of the best juniors in the world several years ago before dealing with some injuries. He is back on the scene now and starting to live up to his potential. So far in Melbourne he has knocked off both #8 seed Holger Rune and #28 seed Tallon Griekspoor. In those 2 matches Cazaux lost a total of 1 set. This pick is just as much fading Hubert Hurkacz as it is backing Cazaux. Hurkacz is a very good player with one of the biggest serves on tour, but he is a perennial underachiever at Grand Slams. The 26-year-old Pole has been past the fourth round of a major only once (2021 Wimbledon semifinals). The pressure is all on Hurkacz, who has played 9 total sets in his last 2 matches. I don’t see him winning this one easily – and he may not win it at all.
