Ricky Dimon
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The remaining quarterfinal spots at the Australian Open will be handed out on Monday, when fourth-round competition concludes in Melbourne. Learner Tien will try to continue his breakthrough run, while men’s title favorite and defending champion Jannik Sinner is also taking the court. On the women’s side, Iga Swiatek headlines the order of play.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 9 schedule.
Elina Svitolina ML over Veronika Kudermetova (-140)
Svitolina is playing inspired tennis at Melbourne Park. She is back from injury after missing the second half of last season, she is reunited with longtime coach Andrew Bettles and husband Gael Monfils has joined her in the fourth round with amazing run of his own. Whereas Monfils has advanced with plenty of fanfare and theatrics, Svitolina has been quietly going about her business. The Ukrainian has been clinical through 3 rounds, dropping just 1 set in total – and that was to reigning French Open and Wimbledon runner-up Jasmine Paolini. After losing the opening set to Paolini, Svitolina erased her 6-4, 6-0 in the next two. Meanwhile, Kudermetova is struggling down at #75 in the rankings and has much less of a successful history at Grand Slams than her opponent. Let‘s back Svitolina to keep it rolling.
Learner Tien +2.5 games over Lorenzo Sonego (-120)
All aboard the Tien bandwagon! The 19-year-old American has been the breakout star of this Australian Open along with Joao Fonseca (although Fonseca lost in the second round after taking out Andrey Rublev). Tien has been incredibly impressive, most notably when he stunned world #5 and 3-time Aussie Open runner-up Dannil Medvedev in a five-set thriller in round 2. Sonego ended Fonseca’s run, but the Italian has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career; asking him to take out another upstart teenager might be too much. This should be a favorable matchup for Tien, too. His lefty serve and forehand can effectively victimize Sonego’s weakness, which is the backhand side. Sonego is 5-9 in his last 14 matches against left-handed opponents and during this stretch he has defeated only 1 left-handed foe ranked inside the top 150. The game spread looks good and I will even back Tien on the money line.
Elena Rybakina vs Madison Keys Under 1.5 sets (-150)
I’m not sure which way this one will go, but it’s probably safe to say that it will one-sided one way or the other. It comes down to Rybakina’s physical state. She took multiple medical timeouts for a back injury during her win over Dayana Yastremska on Saturday but somehow managed to get across the finish line in straight sets. Still, she did not look good. When healthy, though, Rybakina is a far superior player to Keys. If the Kazakh is 100 percent, I expect her to prevail with ease. But if she isn’t (and especially if her serve is compromised) Keys is playing well enough to take advantage. I think we will know pretty early who is going to win this match – and whoever it is will probably win it with ease.
