Ricky Dimon
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We are approaching the business end of the Australian Open. Sunday marks the proverbial beginning of “week 2.” If you are a lower-ranked player, you know you’ve had an awesome tournament if you are still alive. If you are at the top of the game and a serious title contender, you know you are getting somewhat close the end goal. The latter group includes ATP world #1 Novak Djokovic and #4 Jannik Sinner, who will both be taking the court on Sunday as they aim to secure spots in the quarterfinals.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 8 schedule for the season’s first Grand Slam.
Alex de Minaur over Andrey Rublev (+125)
This projects to be perhaps the match of the entire fourth round. After all, it features 2 of the hottest players on tour. Given that it feels like a toss-up, I think there is very good value on Alex De Minaur as the underdog. The Aussie recently broke into the top 10 of the rankings for the first time in his career and he is sporting a 6-1 record this season – with a current 6-match winning streak. Andrey Rublev is 7-0, which includes a title earlier this month in Hong Kong. Of course, the Russian is by no means invincible. He was pushed to a fifth-set tiebreaker in the opening round of this tournament by little-known qualifier Thiago Seyboth Wild. It’s also worth noting that De Minaur leads the head-to-head series with Rublev 3-2 and all 3 of his wins have come on hard courts. Home-court advantage could be a real factor in this one, as well, so you can sound the upset alert.
Maria Timofeeva +3.5 games over Marta Kostyuk (-115)
Marta Kostyuk won her second-round match on Friday, but I faded her against the spread and that worked out to perfection. Elina Avanesyan had no trouble covering the +4.5 game spread in a 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 loss. Maria Timofeeva also finds herself as too big of an underdog against Kostyuk. The 20-year-old Russian has won 6 matches at this Australian Open – 3 in qualifying in addition to 3 in the main draw. She was especially impressive in her 2 most recent matches, upsetting Caroline Wozniacki and Beatriz Haddad Maia. Kostyuk needed a trio of 3-setters to earn her place in the round of 16. In addition to the game spread, I would also sprinkle some on Timofeeva’s money line.
Taylor Fritz +2.5 games over Stefanos Tsitsipas (-125)
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Taylor Fritz also squared off in the fourth round of 2022 Aussie Open. Tsitsipas won, but it went the full five-set distance. The Greek holds a slight 2-1 lead in the head-to-head series (not including a Laver Cup match – a virtual exhibition – in 2019 that was decided by a tiebreaker instead of a full third set). They most recently faced each other last spring at the Monte-Carlo Masters, where Fritz cruise 6-2, 6-4. That was on Tsitsipas’ best surface and Fritz’s worst (clay), so that is an especially encouraging result for the American. Tsitsipas finished runner-up at the 2022 Australian Open, but he has not been at his best since that time. This is another match that has upset potential; in a match that is almost certain to be close the whole way, however, the +2.5 games could come in handy.
