Ricky Dimon
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Fourth-round action at the Australian Open will wrap up on Monday, when the last of the quarterfinal spots will be determined. Novak Djokovic headlines the schedule of play on the men’s side, while Caroline Garcia, Karolina Pliskova and Aryna Sabalenka are among the women who will be taking the court. There are plenty of surprise players in the fourth round, as well, making for a nice mix on Monday’s menu.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 8 schedule.
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Alex de Minaur +6.5 games over Novak Djokovic (-120)
Novak Djokovic hasn’t been dominant through 3 rounds at Melbourne Park, as he lost a set to Enzo Couacaud and then battled through a relatively tight 3-setter against Grigor Dimitrov on Thursday night. Meanwhile, De Minaur has been pretty much destroying opponents. The 24th-ranked Aussie loves the big stage and always plays his best tennis at home in front of a raucous crowd. To be clear, I’m not even factoring in Djokovic’s apparent leg issue into this pick. The 35-year-old Serb is running like a gazelle during points, so I’m not going to make anything out of the rope-a-dope that is going on in between points and during changeovers. Even assuming that Djokovic is 100% physically, De Minaur should be able to cover what is a sizable spread.
Ben Shelton ML over J.J. Wolf (+115)
If you are a fan of American men’s tennis, get your popcorn ready. For the first time since 2004, 4 Team USA players are in the 4th round of the men’s singles Australian Open draw. At least one is guaranteed to reach the quarterfinals, as J.J. Wolf and Ben Shelton are going head-to-head on Monday. I’ll give the edge to Shelton, who loves rowdy environments. In the past two college seasons he led Florida to the NCAA title (2021) and then captured the individual singles crown (2022). On Saturday he ousted Australia’s own Alexei Popyrin in straight sets, silencing a throng of boisterous fans. Dating back to last fall, Shelton is 19-2 in his last 21 matches.
Parlay: Carolina Garcia ML over Magda Linette and Karolina Pliskova ML over Shuai Zhang (+106)
I am 6-0 on Australian Open parlays so far. Let’s keep the momentum going with Garcia (on whom I have a +1200 outright play) and Pliskova (who has been utterly dominant so far this fortnight). Garcia got past 2021 U.S. Open runner-up Leylah Fernandez in the second round, while Pliskova has not yet dropped a set in Melbourne and has not even been pushed to a tiebreaker. In Linette and Zhang, the competition level on Monday is unspectacular. I’m counting on a pair of routine results.
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