Ricky Dimon
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Australian Open 3rd-round action continues on Saturday with a host of top players in action and fighting to make it into the second week of the season’s first Grand Slam. The stakes are ratcheting up in a big way at Melbourne Park. Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz are among those headlining the order of play. Let’s dive into our Australian Open best bets for Day 7.
Parlay: Taylor Fritz -1.5 sets over Gael Monfils and Alex de Minaur -1.5 sets over Francisco Cerundolo (-133)
Fritz is simply on fire to begin the 2025 campaign. He led the United States to the United Cup title and has lost only 8 total games through his first 2 matches at the Australian Open. It’s nothing new, either, as the American surged to #4 in the rankings last season – highlighted by a runner-up performance at the US Open. Gael Monfils is also playing great, but I can’t see anyone outside the top 10 seriously troubling Fritz right now.
Alex de Minaur vs Francisco Cerundolo should be even more straightforward. The Aussie is also red hot to begin the year, sporting a 4-0 match record that includes a 10-0 mark in total sets. He has not even been pushed to a single tiebreaker. Cerundolo generally doesn’t do much against higher-ranked opponents and I can’t see that changing for the Argentine when he has to go up against an Aussie in Australia.
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Alex Michelsen +1.5 sets over Karen Khachanov (-144)
Alex Michelsen has already pulled off 1 “upset” that wasn’t really an upset when he knocked off Stefanos Tsitsipas in the opening round. Beating Karen Khachanov would be a similar result. The Russian is favored, but Michelsen is in with a great chance. Stylistically, this seems like a favorable matchup for the American. His overall game is just as big as Khachanov’s, plus he is more consistent. Khachanov is also coming off a very tough 4-setter against Gabriel Diallo, while Michelsen completely destroyed James McCabe on Thursday. Sound the “upset” alert.
Emma Navarro ML over Ons Jabeur (-111)
I was on the Emma Navarro bandwagon in each of the first 2 rounds and it paid off, albeit with a sweat on both occasions. Despite some close calls, there is no reason to jump ship now. After all, taking care of business when you don’t have your best stuff is the sign of a champion – which Navarro hopes to become at the Grand Slam level. For now, her sole aim is to get past Ons Jabeur on Saturday. That shouldn’t be too much of an issue given Jabeur’s current state. The veteran Tunisian appears to be a shadow of her former self who reached 3 major finals, which is why she is unseeded in Melbourne. Jabeur battled past Maria Camila Osorio Serrano in the second round but looked far less than 100 percent physically in addition to being mentally out of sorts. Count on Navarro taking advantage.
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