Ricky Dimon
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The Australian Open continues on Friday with the conclusion of 3rd-round action. Following a huge scare in her last match, world #1 Iga Swiatek will be back on the court. On the men’s side, Daniil Medvedev continues his campaign after winning his 2nd-round showdown against Emil Ruusuvuori at 3:39 in the morning. Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev are also on the schedule. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 7 schedule for the season’s first Grand Slam.
Juncheng Shang +8.5 games over Carlos Alcaraz (-118)
Alcaraz did not play very well in his 2nd-round match against Lorenzo Sonego on Thursday, winning 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-6(3). In reality, the world #2 has been far from dominant since winning Wimbledon last summer. He also faced Novak Djokovic in the Cincinnati Masters final and was not the same the rest of the season after losing that thriller. Alcaraz is definitely close to being back to his slam-winning best, but will have to be in absolute peak form to cover such a huge spread against Juncheng Shang. The left-hander from China is only 18 years old, but he has all the makings of being the real deal. Case in point: Shang beat fellow rising star Ben Shelton in back-to-back tournaments last summer (Atlanta and Washington, D.C.). This is simply too big of a spread. Shang could get blown out something like 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 and he would still cover 8.5 games.
Alex Michelsen +5.5 games over Alexander Zverev (+110)
This is a slightly riskier play because you have to keep a match at least somewhat close to cover 5.5 games. Alex Michelsen should be able to do it, however. In comparison to the Alcaraz-Shang matchup, Michelsen is even more established than Shang on the pro tour and Alexander Zverev certainly isn’t Alcaraz. The 6th-ranked German is very good, no doubt, but he isn’t among the 2 or 3 best players in the world like Alcaraz. Zverev is coming off a 4 hours and 31 minutes marathon against world #163 Lukas Klein, whom the 26-year-old defeated 7-5, 3-6, 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(10-7). In truth, Zverev got outplayed for the majority of the match. At 19 years old, Michelsen is already up to 91st in the rankings and he is expected to reach at least #73 even if he loses on Saturday. But the big-hitting American might not lose; he has a real chance in this one.
Parlay: Casper Ruud ML over Cameron Norrie and Emma Navarro ML over Dayana Yastremska (+109)
All signs point to Casper Ruud taking care of business against Cameron Norrie. Ruud is a 3-time Grand Slam runner-up; Norrie has not done much at slams outside of making a run to the Wimbledon semifinals in 2022. Moreover, the Norwegian has won all 3 of their previous head-to-head meetings and he is 6-1 in total sets. Both guys are coming off 5-set matches in round 2, so there is no advantage in terms of rest for either player.
Meanwhile, Emma Navarro is on an absolute roll. The American is on a 7-match winning streak, having captured a title in Hobart. She has to be a bit tired, but Yastremska has also played a ton of tennis over the past week or so. The Ukrainian had to win 3 qualifying matches just to get into the Aussie Open main draw and all 3 of them went to 3 sets. Count on Navarro remaining on fire.
