Ricky Dimon
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The Australian Open continues on Thursday with the beginning of 3rd-round competition. On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic will be hoping to be more efficient on the heels of tough tests in rounds 1 and 2. In the women’s bracket, Coco Gauff and Alycia Parks are set for an all-American showdown. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 6 schedule for the season’s first Grand Slam.
Ben Shelton -1.5 sets over Adrian Mannarino (-125)
Contrary to what their only previous meeting suggests, this is a really bad matchup for Adrian Mannarino. In this all-lefty affair, Shelton’s huge serve (one of the biggest in the sport) and cross-court forehand will attack Mannarino’s weakness, which is the forehand. Mannarino’s patented out-wide serve feeds into Shelton’s strength, which is the forehand. The 35-year-old beat Shelton at the Miami Masters last March, but that was when the American was in the very early stages of his professional career. Shelton had already reached the Aussie Open quarterfinals at the time, but he was also in the midst of a 6-match slump. Now the Atlanta native is 21 years old and clearly one of the best players in the world (ranked 16th). Shelton needed only 7 total sets to win his first 2 matches this fortnight, whereas Mannarino was pushed to 5 by both Stan Wawrinka and Jaume Munar. Fatigue could be a factor for the Frenchman, which is all the more reason to back Shelton.
Elina Avanesyan +4.5 games over Marta Kostyuk (+104)
Marta Kostyuk is a relatively big name in the world of tennis, primarily because she has been so outspoken on the ongoing war with Russia. Bigger names tend to be more inflated by oddsmakers compared to the lesser known, which may explain the odds on this match. Whatever the case, based on actual tennis acumen this should be closer to an even matchup. Kostyuk is playing pretty well, but so is Elina Avanesyan. The 74th-ranked Russian has played 5 matches in 2024 and has lost in straight sets just once – and that was to an on-fire Emma Raducanu, who went on to capture the Auckland title after beating Avanesyan. On Wednesday, Avanesyan made quick work of #8 seed Maria Sakkari 6-4, 6-4. Getting 4.5 games should be more than enough, and it has especially strong value at plus money. I would sprinkle some on the money line, as well.
Parlay: Aryna Sabalenka -1.5 sets over Lesia Tsurenko and Taylor Fritz -1.5 sets over Fabian Marozsan (-101)
There is a lot to like about Aryna Sabalenka at this Australian Open. In fact, she is my pick to win on the women’s side. So far, so good. The world #2 should be playing with confidence, and that is exactly what she is doing. Sabalenka absolutely thrashed each of her first 2 opponents, beating Ella Seidel 6-0, 6-1 and Brenda Fruhvirtova 6-3, 6-2. Tsurenko may be a slightly tougher opponent, but at 34 years old the Ukrainian is likely past her prime.
As for Fritz, he survived a 5-set battle in the first round. However, such early scares often send top players off to the races and that may be what it does for Fritz. The 12th-ranked American raised his level considerably in round 2, blowing out Hugo Gaston 6-0, 6-3, 6-1. This is Fabian Marozsan’s first-ever appearance in the 3rd round of a major, so it’s a big stage for him. I expect Fritz to roll.
