Ricky Dimon
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The Australian Open continues on Thursday with the conclusion of second-round competition. On the women’s side, Iga Swiatek had a tough opener against former Aussie Open champion Sofia Kenin and now faces former Aussie Open runner-up Danielle Collins. As for the men, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev are back on the court. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 5 schedule for the season’s first Grand Slam.
Parlay: Holger Rune -1.5 sets over Arthur Cazaux and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -1.5 sets over Nuno Borges (-108)
Both of these matches will likely be routine affairs. In fact, my guess is that both Holger Rune and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will get the job done in 3 sets. Taking them both with -1.5 set spreads should provide more than enough cushion. It is true that Rune had some trouble in the heat during his opening match on Tuesday, but at the same time, he wore down Yoshihito Nishioka on the way to a 4-set victory. Conditions will be cooler on Thursday, so weather shouldn’t be a factor and Rune will most likely be fine. Cazaux is ranked #122 in the world and needed 5 sets to defeat Laslo Djere in round 1.
Davidovich Fokina is also on a much different level from his opponent. He comes in at 24th in the rankings, while Nuno Borges is 69th. The Portuguese baseline is more comfortable on clay than hard courts, too.
Parlay: Emma Navarro over Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Juncheng Shang over Sumit Nagal (-105)
I have been all aboard the Emma Navarro bandwagon in 2024, including on Tuesday – when she defeated Xinu Wang. Backing Navarro has been a productive move pretty much the entire season so far, as she boasts a 9-1 record with a title in Hobart. Her only loss is to world #4 Coco Gauff. Elisabetta Cocciaretto may not provide much resistance on this surface; she is a tougher opponent on clay. The Italian is 39-30 lifetime on outdoor hard courts, whereas she has won 112 matches on the red stuff.
Juncheng Shang vs Sumit Nagal may be slightly more competitive, but Shang has the clear edge. The 18-year-old lefty from China is expected to be one of the ATP Tour’s breakout stars this season. He has far more offensive firepower than Nagal, so the match will be on the teenager’s racket.
Katie Boulter +4.5 games over Qinwen Zheng (-125)
Katie Boulter is British, but she will probably have some considerable crowd support as a borderline adopted Australian since she is Alex de Minaur’s longtime girlfriend. Okay, that’s unlikely to be the decisive factor in this match… but Boulter is capable of winning it in her own right. The world #54 owns a 5-1 record so far in 2024, which includes victories at the United Cup over Ajla Tomljanovic and Jessica Pegula. Zheng is a difficult opponent – but not any more difficult than Tomljanovic or Pegula. The 21-year-old from China needed 3 sets to beat world #76 Ashlyn Krueger in her opening match. I actually think Boulter has a good chance to win this one outright, so +4.5 games has outstanding value and I would also sprinkle some on the money line.
