With Day 4 results pending, I’m 7-2 on my Australian Open best bets — including clean 3-0 sweeps on both Monday and Wednesday. All 6 of my futures plays – men and women combined – have advanced through the draw without any trouble. Now it’s time to keep the momentum going on Friday, when second-round action gets started at Melbourne Park.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 5 schedule.
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Mackenzie McDonald +3 games over Yoshihito Nishioka (-110)
Yoshihito Nishioka is 3-1 in the head-to-head series, but I just can’t pass up an opportunity to back Mackenzie McDonald at a Grand Slam — especially when you can get him with a +3 game spread (I would also sprinkle some on the +145 money line). These guys simply aren’t the same in best-of-5 situations. Heading into this Australian Open, Nishioka was 11-26 all-time in slam main draws. The left-hander from Japan has never reached the fourth round of any major and this is just his second trip to a third round. Meanwhile, McDonald is 17-17 for his major career following Wednesday’s win over Rafael Nadal. Yes, Nadal was injured, but McDonald was leading even in the first half of the match when the Spaniard was 100%. The American has been to round 4 of a slam twice before, including at the 2021 Aussie Open.
Denis Shapovalov ML over Hubert Hurkacz (-105)
Denis Shapovalov and Hubert Hurkacz both reached the Wimbledon semifinals in 2021, but that’s where the similarities end. Shapovalov has reached at least the quarterfinals at 3 of the 4 majors, including at the 2021 Australian Open. Hurkacz, on the other hand, is just 17-18 lifetime at Grand Slams and has advanced past the third round only one other time (a fourth-round finish at Roland Garros in 2022). Moreover, the Pole is coming off a tough 5-setter against Lorenzo Sonego on Wednesday whereas Shapovalov cruised past Taro Daniel in routine fashion. I like the Canadian a lot here, especially as a small ‘dog.
Australian Open Parlay: Coco Gauff ML over Bernarda Pera and Jessica Pegula ML over Marta Kostyuk (-183)
This should be a safe play, as both Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula are heavy favorites. Gauff is a Grand Slam finalist (2022 French Open) and now wants to take the next step, just as Emma Raducanu did at the 2021 U.S. Open. The 18-year-old American defeated Raducanu in straight sets on Wednesday, so she is rolling Down Under. Speaking of rolling, Pegula propelled Team USA to the United Cup title earlier this month and from an individual standpoint has surged to #3 in the WTA rankings. It should be noted that her United Cup campaign included a 6-2, 6-2 demolition of world #1 Iga Swiatek. Pera will likely provide little resistance, and while Kostyuk is a respectable opponent she is nowhere near Pegula’s level.
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