Ricky Dimon
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The Australian Open continues on Wednesday with the beginning of second-round competition. Novak Djokovic will be back on the court following a bit of a scare in his opening match, while Jannik Sinner and Stefanos Tsitsipas are also on the schedule. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka is among the headliners.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 4 schedule for the season’s first Grand Slam.
Parlay: Caroline Wozniacki over Maria Timofeeva and Sebastian Baez over Daniel Elahi Galan (+102)
Caroline Wozniacki won the Australian Open in 2018. Fast forward 6 years and the former world #1 is back on tour following a 2-year retirement. Her comeback event was last summer at the U.S. Open, where she made an impressive run to the 4th round before falling to eventual champion Coco Gauff. It looks like Wozniacki is still playing well, as she led #20 seed Magda Linette 6-2, 6-0 in the Australian Open 1st round when Linette retired. Maria Timofeeva had never played in the main draw of a major prior to this tournament, so this may be too big of a stage to handle for the 20-year-old.
While Sebastian Baez is never the safest player to back on a hard court (he is at his best on clay), this should be a good situation for the Argentine. He advanced to the 3rd round of the U.S. Open (also on a hard court) last year and played well on Sunday while comfortably leading J.J. Wolf 2-1 in sets and 3-0 in the 4th when the American retired. Daniel Elahi Galan, who is also at his best on clay, needed 4 hours and 59 minutes to get past Jason Kubler. It’s also worth noting that Baez won his only previous encounter with Galan last summer on the hard courts of Winston-Salem.
Frances Tiafoe -3.5 games over Tomas Machac (-110)
I rolled with Frances Tiafoe on Sunday and that proved to be a winner, as he took care of Borna Coric in 4 sets. The American is once again too small of a favorite, so I’m taking advantage of the value and getting right back on the bandwagon. No, Tiafoe is not the most consistent player on tour – but he always seems to rise to the occasion at Grand Slams. When he is on the big stage, his best tennis is usually on display. Tiafoe reached the Aussie Open quarterfinals in 2019 and has advanced to the semis and the quarters of the last 2 U.S. Opens. Tomas Machac, who comes in at #75 in the world, has never been past Round 2 of a slam and this is his first time winning even 1 round since the 2022 Aussie. I can’t see the 23-year-old Czech taking more than 1 set, and he may not take any.
Kamilla Rakhimova over Diane Parry (+104)
France’s Diane Parry owns a dreadful 32-47 lifetime on hard courts (27-36 outdoors). Kamilla Rakhimova, on the other hand, is 78-48 for her career on outdoor hard courts (in addition to being 40-22 indoors). Whereas Rakhimova opened with a solid 6-4, 6-4 victory over Emina Bektas, Parry required 3 sets to beat Xinyu Wang. This is one of those matchups that will probably be dictated almost entirely by the surface on which it was played. Parry would likely get the job done on clay – but not on a hard court. Rakhimova should be the favorite in this contest, so getting her at plus money is a great value play.
