Ricky Dimon
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It’s safe to say that things are going nicely for me so far in Melbourne. I’m 7-2 on my best bets through 3 days, including clean 3-0 sweeps on both Monday and Wednesday. All 6 of my futures plays – men and women combined – have advanced through the draw without any trouble. Now it’s time to keep the momentum going on Thursday, when second-round action at the Australian Open will conclude.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 4 schedule.
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Ons Jabeur ML over Marketa Vondrousova (-130)
I have an outright play on Jabeur at +1400 and will happily double down on her to get the job done in round two. It’s a battle between Grand Slam finalists, as Jabeur finished runner-up at each of the past 2 majors (Wimbledon and the U.S. Open in 2022) while Vondrousova made a run to the 2019 Roland Garros title match. At present, though, a huge edge should go to Jabeur–much bigger than the odds would suggest. The Tunisian is in better form and she is far more comfortable on hard courts than Vondrousova, who does her best work on clay.
Nuria Parrizas Diaz +3 games over Anastasia Potapova (-120)
This match won’t get nearly the same kind of spotlight as Jabeur vs Vondrousova, but it has similarly great value. Parrizas Diaz is coming off a stellar first-round win over #14 seed Beatriz Haddad Maia, a 7-6(11), 6-2 decision. NPD is already 5-2 this season and in her career on hard courts she is 110-49. Potapova (3-3 so far in 2023) has not compiled a winning hard-court record since the abbreviated 2020 campaign. The 21-year-old Russian has struggled at the beginning of the season with some particularly lopsided losses, so the momentum is on Parrizas Diaz’s side. In fact, I would also take the money-line upset in this contest (+150)
Australian Open Parlay: Andrey Rublev ML over Emil Ruusuvuori and Tommy Paul ML over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-110)
Rublev vs Ruusuvuori should be entirely straightforward. An incredibly consistent player, Rublev has lost prior to the third round only once in his last 11 Grand Slams. He is coming off a straight-set rout of Dominic Thiem and had a full day of rest, whereas Ruusuvuori needed three hours and 48 minutes to get past Max Purcell and that match was pushed back until Wednesday because of weather issues. As for Paul, he is in much better form than Davidovich Fokina and has the hard-court advantage. Americans are on a roll this week in Melbourne and I expect Paul to join the party, denying Davidovich Fokina a first-ever Aussie Open third-round appearance.
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