Ricky Dimon
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First-round competition at the Australian Open wraps up on Tuesday with a whole host of intriguing matchups. They include Andrey Rublev vs Joao Fonseca, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gael Monfils, Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima and Emma Navarro vs Peyton Stearns. Let’s take a look at the Australian Open best bets to be made on the Day 3 schedule. I’m off to a 2-0 start following a successful first day of the tournament, so let’s keep the momentum going! You can also find out our Australian Open Men’s Singles Winner predictions and Australian Open Women’s Singles Winner picks for those of you looking for some futures bets.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ML over Gael Monfils (-130)
This may be the marquee match of the entire Aussie Open first round. That’s certainly the case for French fans, but even the casual observer has to be salivating over this matchup. Gael Monfils is one of the biggest names in the sport, while Mpetshi Perricard is a rising star on tour. Who is GMP? Well, he is a 21-year-old who has soared to #30 in the rankings (11 spots better than Monfils). Wielding perhaps the biggest serve in tennis, he won the Basel title last fall and got this season started with a semifinal effort in Brisbane. Monfils is coming off a title in Auckland on Saturday, but recovering from 5 matches in a short amount of time won’t be easy for a 38-year-old who has an extensive history of physical problems.
Parlay: Tristan Boyer -1.5 sets over Federico Coria and Learner Tien -1.5 sets over Camilo Ugo Carabelli (-106)
Both matchups are young Americans who played college tennis against Argentine clay-court specialists. Anything other than comfortable wins by the 2 Americans would be a big surprise. Both Tristan Boyer and Learner Tien are playing great right now. Boyer captured 2 Challenger titles this past fall and lost to Tien in the final on another. He also successfully qualified for the main draw of the Australian Open, so he already has 3 wins under his belt in Melbourne. Tien dominated the Challenger Tour down the stretch in 2024 before finishing runner-up to Fonseca at the NextGen ATP Finals.
Meanwhile, both Federico Coria and Camilo Ugo Carabelli are completely hopeless on any surface other than clay. They are the kind of guys who show up to Grand Slams like the Aussie Open, Wimbledon and the US Open simply for the paycheck but without any real intentions of winning matches. Neither one is likely to even win a single set.
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Emma Navarro over ML Peyton Stearns (-130)
Like Boyer and Tien, Emma Navarro and Peyton Stearns are Americans who previously starred at the college level (at Virginia and Texas, respectively). However, that’s just about where the similarities end with these 2 women. Stearns has been playing well over the past year or so, but she isn’t in the same league as Navarro. They are separated by 39 spots in the rankings (Navarro’s #8 to Stearns’ #47). Moreover, Navarro advanced to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon and the semis of the US Open last summer. Stearns has never reached the quarters of a major and she has been to the 4th round just once. Navarro is only a slight favorite in this first-round showdown. She should be a bigger one, and thus the value on her is great.
