Ricky Dimon
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First-round competition at the Australian Open continues on Monday with a jam-packed order of play. Among those taking the court are Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka. Sinner is the defending champion, while Djokovic is a 10-time winner at Melbourne Park. Osaka is looking for her third victory Down Under.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 2 schedule.
Parlay: Denis Shapovalov ML over Roberto Bautista Agut and Jordan Thompson ML over Dominik Koepfer and (-107)
Shapovalov has absolutely owned Bautista Agut in the past. The Canadian lefty has won all 3 of their previous meetings and is 7-0 all time in total sets. Only once has Bautista Agut even forced a tiebreaker. Moreover, the Spaniard is 36 years old – 11 years his opponent’s senior. It’s not like Bautista Agut is suddenly going to close the gap. Meanwhile, Thompson also boasts a 3-0 head-to-lead over Thompson. The Aussie has won 6 of their 7 total sets. There is no reason to think anything will change Down Under, where Thompson has home-court advantage and will be buoyed by a raucous Aussie crowd. The 30-year-old is coming off the best season of his career, too, so all signs point to a routine victory.
Gabriel Diallo ML over Luca Nardi (-171)
Let’s stay on the Canadian train and back Diallo to join Shapovalov in the second round. A former college standout at Kentucky, Diallo made impressive strides on the pro tour last year. That includes a third-round run at the U.S. Open as a qualifier, so he knows what he is doing on the big stage. He ended his 2024 campaign with a runner-up showing in Almaty and kicked off 2025 with a semifinal performance in Hong Kong. Nardi is not particularly adept on hard courts and both of his 2 previous trips to the Aussie Open resulted in unceremonious qualifying losses. Diallo should really be a bigger favorite in this one.
Jana Fett +6.5 games over Marketa Vondrousova (-124)
Vondrousova won Wimbledon from out of nowhere in 2023 and she is also a former French Open finalist (2019). Those results still make her inflated by the markets, but – mainly due to injuries – she is a shadow of her former self. The Czech left-hander has played only 2 matches since Wimbledon last July and has won just 2 matches since the French Open. As such, there is simply no way I’m giving pretty much any opponent 6.5 games – especially an opponent who has confidence after qualifying for the main draw in Melbourne. That’s right; Fett has more victories at this tournament alone than Vondrousova has in the last 7 months. I would not even be surprised if this turns out to be an outright upset.
