Ricky Dimon
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After the season’s first Grand Slam kicked off at Melbourne Park on Monday, the bottom halves of both the men’s and women’s Australian Open singles draws will take center stage on Tuesday. That means Novak Djokovic is in action along with Andrey Rublev, Dominic Thiem, Ons Jabeur and Caroline Garcia. I have futures plays on both Jabeur and Garcia in my Aussie Open women’s preview, so hopefully they will start strongly.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 2 schedule.
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Grigor Dimitrov vs Aslan Karatsev over 37.5 games (-120)
Grigor Dimitrov and Aslan Karatsev have faced each other twice before — including in the quarterfinals of the 2021 Aussie Open — and neither contest ended in straight sets. I don’t see anything different taking place this time around. Neither man is playing well enough to handle the other with ease and similarly, neither is playing poorly enough to get blown out. Both are in solid but unspectacular form. A 37.5 number is not particularly large, so any 4-set match should have no trouble going over the total — and even a 5-setter is very possible.
Chun Hsin Tseng +6.5 games over Alexei Popyrin (-110)
This will be the second consecutive hard-court major in which Alexei Popyrin and Chun Hsin Tseng are going head-to-head in the first round. At the 2022 U.S. Open Popyrin got the job done in straight sets, but the score was 6-3, 7-6(5), 7-6(3). That’s a 5-game difference, for those counting. The 21-year-old from Chinese Taipei now has 5 more months of experience under his belt, which includes an appearance in the NextGen ATP Finals last fall. Popyrin is struggling outside the top 100 and, not including matches that ended in retirements, he is just 3-5 lifetime in the main draw of the Australian Open. I wouldn’t be shocked if Tseng wins this one outright.
Diane Parry +3.5 games over Taylor Townsend (-110)
You can’t trust Taylor Townsend on the singles court right now, so getting a +3.5 spread with pretty much any opponent is a solid bet. Townsend’s comeback after giving birth to her first child has been going fine in doubles, but she hasn’t done anything in singles. In fact, since the 2020 Australian Open — yes, 3 years ago — the 26-year-old American has only 2 wins over opponents ranked in the top 82. So far this season she is 0-2, a record that includes a 6-0, 6-1 loss to Anastasia Potapova in Adelaide. Parry may not be in great form, either, but she loves the big stage. The Frenchwoman reached the third round of both the French Open and Wimbledon in 2022. I would sprinkle some on the +190 money line as well.
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