Ricky Dimon
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The 2023 Australian Open comes to an end on Sunday night with the men’s singles final. To say that I’m sad to see this tournament end would be a gross understatement. It has been a smashing success for me so far (23-11 best bet record, up +19.3 units heading into the women’s singles final between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina on Saturday night). Now it’s time to wrap things up in style. I made a 2-unit outright play on Stefanos Tsitsipas at +1400 before the fortnight began, and it’s still alive heading into Sunday’s championship match. Standing in Tsitsipas’ way is none other than 9-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic. Get your popcorn ready.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 14 schedule.
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3-star play: Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 36.5 games (-112 at FanDuel)
Djokovic has been trouncing opponents in Melbourne and the under was an easy winner for me in both his quarterfinal and semifinal matches. However, with Tsitsipas now on the other side of the net it’s time to reverse course and take the over. Five of Djokovic’s first six opponents were relatively defensive players who can’t come close to overpowering him. Andrey Rublev is the one exception, but Rublev has a huge forehand and that’s it. He doesn’t serve big or go to the net. To beat Djokovic right now or even to be competitive, you have to win free points on serve and finish points at the net. Tsitsipas can do both of those things. He can keep points short, which you have to do against the Serb. Although the Greek has won only two of their 12 head-to-head matchups, the majority of his losses have been respectable. In fact, each of their two French Open showdowns in 2020 (semis) and 2021 (final) went five sets. They also faced each other twice this past fall; Djokovic prevailed 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(4) in Paris and 6-4, 7-6(4) at the year-end championship. As the scores indicate, neither match was easy.
2-star play: Stefanos Tsitsipas +6.5 games over Novak Djokovic (-150 at DraftKings)
An over bet obviously correlates nicely with this play, as Tsitsipas probably isn’t going to wipe the court with Djokovic in easy straight sets. If Tsitsipas covers this game spread, in all likelihood the match is going over the game total. And I do think the Greek will cover. In addition to the reasons mentioned above (his competitiveness in the head-to-head matchup), Tsitsipas always plays well in Melbourne and this year is no exception. The world #4 was already a three-time semifinalist and now he is through to the title match for the first time. He dropped only three sets in total along the way–two at the hands of Jannik Sinner (one of the best players in the world) and one against Karen Khachanov (now a two-time major semifinalist, as the Russian also reached that stage of the 2022 U.S. Open). Tsitsipas blitzed everyone else in straight sets. The underdog’s level of play is too good for him to get blown out on Sunday.
1-star play: Over 0.5 tiebreakers played in the match (-125 at bet365)
Four of the last five encounters between Djokovic and Tsitsipas have featured a tiebreaker. I expect this one to do the same. What’s the best way to guarantee a tiebreaker? By holding serve the entire way in a set, of course. Well, Djokovic has been broken only five times in six matches this fortnight. In four of the matches prior to Sunday’s final he did not get broken a single time. Tsitsipas has played at least one tiebreaker in four of his six matches — including two in the semifinals. He has lost his serve just nine times during this event and in three of the six matches he didn’t lose it a single time.
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