Ricky Dimon
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The men and women are alternating days the rest of the way at the Australian Open. Next up are the men, who will take center stage for semifinal competition on Friday. Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic are on a collision course for the championship match. They first have to get past Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev, respectively.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 13 schedule.
Alexander Zverev -0.5 double-faults vs. Novak Djokovic (+110)
This same line was a routine cash for me in Zverev’s quarterfinal match against Tommy Paul on Tuesday, when he double-faulted 5 times to the American’s 2 doubles. I’m going right back to the well for Zverev’s match against Djokovic. They are double-faulting at almost the exact same rate through 5 rounds at this tournament, but both the matchup and the magnitude of the occasion (a Grand Slam semifinal) should result in more doubles off the Zverev racket. These 2 players have faced each other on 12 previous occasions. In those 12 meetings, Zverev had 50 DFs; Djokovic had 32. The 24-time major champion is hailed as the best returner in tennis history and he generally has an advantage over Zverev in baseline rallies, so the German feels like he must take more risks with his serve in an effort to keep points short. That naturally results in more double-faults.
Additionally, the pressure in this match is all on Zverev even though he is the underdog. Djokovic, of course, has already accomplished everything. Zverev, on the other hand, is without question the best active tennis player to have never won a Grand Slam. He is 2 victories away from finally removing that distinction from his profile, so the pressure is ramping up. Bad things – such as double-faults! – generally happen when Zverev gets close to a major title.
Ben Shelton Over 0.5 service breaks vs. Jannik Sinner (-138)
Asking Shelton to break just once in this semifinal contest should not be too much – not even with Sinner as his opponent. The American has broken at least twice in all 5 of his matches so far at Melbourne Park. His break-point conversion numbers are 3-for-8, 4-for-5, 3-for-6, 2-for-4 and 3-for-11. Obviously his first 5 opponents weren’t anyone like Sinner, but those are still very impressive returning statistics. Sinner has been broken in 3 of his 5 rounds up to this point. Marcos Giron generated 7 break points in the third round; Holger Rune had 5 in the fourth round. Nicolas Jarry and Alex De Minaur failed to break Sinner at all, but Jarry had 2 opportunities and De Minaur had 1.
Sinner and Shelton have squared off 5 times. In their first encounter, Shelton broke once earned a whopping 10 break–point chances. Only twice has the current world #20 failed to break his opponent, and in 2 two matches he had a total of 11 break points. Shelton even broke once at Wimbledon last summer even though grass is the most difficult surface on which to return.
