Ricky Dimon
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It’s men’s semifinals day at the Australian Open, and it has all the makings of a blockbuster. The headliner is a showdown between Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner, whose matchups this past fall captivated the tennis world. In the bottom half of the draw, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev will be going head-to-head — which is nothing new. They have already faced each other a whopping 18 times in their careers.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 13 schedule for the season’s first major. I’m 7-2 over the past 3 days, so let’s keep the momentum going!
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Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Over 39.5 games (-118)
There’s no need to overthink this one — anything less than an instant classic between Djokovic and Sinner would be a disappointment. Djokovic has won both of their Grand Slam meetings (both at Wimbledon), but one went to 5 sets and both were before Sinner became the current version of Sinner. The Italian won 2 of their 3 meetings this past fall, so he isn’t going to lack confidence. Moreover, Sinner has not dropped a single set this fortnight and has played only 1 tiebreaker. Djokovic has been less dominating, losing a set in 3 of his 5 matches. The 36-year-old Serb is obviously favored as the world No. 1 and 10-time Australian Open champion, but Sinner has every reason to make this showdown extremely competitive.
Alexander Zverev +2.5 games over Daniil Medvedev (-114)
Although 2.5 games isn’t a lot, it could make the difference in a matchup that should be priced as a tossup — one that promises to be a tight affair from start to finish. Medvedev is the favorite because he was 5-1 against Zverev last season, but don’t be fooled by that statistic. Zverev was coming back from his 2022 French Open ankle injury and wasn’t in 100 percent playing shape until the hard-court summer. Nonetheless, he was competitive in pretty much every match and managed to beat Medvedev in Cincinnati. Overall, their head-to-head series is a relatively close 11-7 in the Russian’s favor. Meanwhile, Zverev is coming off an awesome 4-set win over Carlos Alcaraz. Medvedev needed 5 sets to get past Hubert Hurkacz and also went 5 with Emil Ruusuvuori in round 2 in a match that ended at 3:39 in the morning. All in all, Medvedev may be running on fumes and Zverev looks like the better player right now.
Alexander Zverev Over 9.5 aces vs Daniil Medvedev (-115)
Zverev has 73 aces at this tournament, trailing only Hurkacz. That’s an average of 14.6 aces per match. Breaking it down further, it’s 3.48 aces per set. If he sticks to those averages, Zverev would reach 10 even in a straight-set match — and straight sets against Medvedev is very unlikely. It is true that Medvedev isn’t the easiest of opponents to ace, but Hurkacz sent 16 by him on Wednesday and Felix Auger-Aliassime had 8 even though the Canadian lost in 3 quick sets. In their most recent head-to-head matchup a couple of months ago at the Nitto ATP Finals, Zverev aced Medvedev 9 times in 2 sets.
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