Ricky Dimon
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The men and women are alternating days the rest of the way at the Australian Open. First up are the women, who will take center stage for semifinal competition on Thursday. The top 2 seeds have advanced, but Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek are facing relatively surprising opponents. They are going up against Paula Badosa and Madison Keys, respectively. Let’s take a look at my Australian Open best bets to be made on Day 12, as I am currently on a 6-0 run with my Aussie Open picks after going 3-0 on Day 10 and Day 11.
Paula Badosa +4.5 games over Aryna Sabalenka (-105)
I was all over Paula Badosa on this same game spread against Coco Gauff in the last round and that was an easy winner. In fact, Badosa obviously won the match outright! I’m going right back to the well on Thursday for a matchup with one of her best friends that really hasn’t been too bad for the Spaniard in the past. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head series 5-2, but only twice in 7 meetings has she covered a -4.5 game spread. Badosa has won 2 of their 3 hard-court encounters, as 4 of her loses to the Belarusian have come on clay.
Another competitive contest should be in the cards. Badosa has been outstanding so far in Melbourne, looking like the player who peaked as high as #2 in the rankings before a 2023 injury halted her progress. She has lost just 1 set so far this fortnight and was especially impressive in her straight-set win over Gauff – the #3 player in the world – on Tuesday. Sabalenka needed 3 sets to get past Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarterfinals, so it’s not like she is being utterly dominant right now. This is even a winnable match outright for Badosa, so let’s take her on the spread for the first of our Australian Open best bets.
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Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Under 6.5 service breaks (+100)
Madison Keys Under 2.5 service breaks (-138)
The value is so good on the service breaks market that I’m going to double down and back the Under on both total breaks and Madison Keys’ individual number of breaks. As usual, Swiatek is in simply dominant form. The world #2 has been broken only twice in 5 matches at this Australian Open. She has faced a grand total of 5 break points.
Swiatek and Keys have squared off on 5 previous occasions and they have broken each other 27 times. For those counting, that’s 5.4 breaks per match. That is already under Thursday’s listed total, and it should be noted that 3 of their previous encounters came on clay – a surface on which it is easier to break because it’s slower. A relatively fast hard court in Melbourne gives more of an advantage to the server. If this ends up being a quick match (likely a beatdown in Swiatek’s favor), the Pole likely won’t have enough time (enough games) to rack up a bunch of breaks. If it’s a long one, it almost certainly means Keys is consistently holding her serve.
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