Ricky Dimon
Show Bio
Friday is men’s semifinal day at Melbourne Park. The lineup has a fair amount of diversity to it, with one all-time great (Novak Djokovic), one major surprise (Tommy Paul) and two guys who have been lurking at or near the top of the sport of a while now (Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov) but are still in search of a maiden Grand Slam title.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Australian Open Day 12 schedule.
You can bet on the Australian Open at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has some of the best futures odds available and a great new customer offer where you can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly! Click here to sign up to DraftKings.
Stefanos Tsitsipas -1.5 sets over Karen Khachanov (-130)
All signs point to Tsitsipas winning this semifinal match comfortably and booking a spot in his second slam title match (previously the 2021 French Open). The Greek is 5-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series with Khachanov, including 3-0 on outdoor hard courts. In those three matches Tsitsipas won six sets and Khachanov failed to win any. The Russian has only managed to take sets off Tsitsipas at the 2021 Rotterdam indoor tournament and on clay last spring in Rome.
As if that isn’t enough, Tsitsipas has clearly been the better player this fortnight. The world #4 has earned four wins in straight sets with the only exception being an impressive victory over Jannik Sinner, who is also one of the tour’s best players. Khachanov struggled with Jason Kubler and Frances Tiafoe earlier in the event and his defeat of Sebastian Korda on Tuesday came at the expense of an injured opponent (the American retired in set three). Tsitsipas -2.5 sets at +190 also has decent value, but -1.5 at -130 is the best bet.
Novak Djokovic vs Tommy Paul Under 30.5 games (-105)
Under 36.5 games was an absolute lock in the Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev quarterfinal on Wednesday night, as the Serb cruised 6-2, 6-1, 6-4. I will happily roll with another Djokovic under on Friday, even though the bad news is that the market has corrected bit. The good news is that it hasn’t corrected enough. A 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 scoreline would stay under the number, and that would be an extremely respectable result for Paul. After all, Rublev got only 7 games off Djokovic and Alex de Minaur in the round before managed only 5. Dating back to the third set of his second-round match, the Serb has won 11 sets in a row and 7 of the 11 have been no more competitive than 6-2.
Paul isn’t any more dangerous than Rublev or De Minaur. In fact, the 25-year-old American is ranked 29 spots below Rublev and 11 below De Minaur. Sure, Paul is playing well; but his matchup with Djokovic is terrible. The underdog doesn’t serve big or hit huge off the ground; he wins with his defense and athleticism. That isn’t a recipe for being competitive with Djokovic. Ben Shelton, who lost to Paul in the quarters, may not have a well-rounded game like his countryman but would have had a better chance (still not a good one!) to trouble Djokovic because of a booming serve and forehand that he could use to keep points short. Paul doesn’t have those things. In the end, this is still more about Djokovic than Paul. The 9-time Aussie Open champion is just crushing people right now and there is no reason to think that will stop.
You can bet on the Australian Open over at PointsBet, where new customers can secure up to 5x different $100 bonus bets! Click here to lock in on this great sign-up offer.
The Pickswise tennis handicappers are on hand throughout the entire tennis season, bringing you the best free expert Tennis Predictions and Picks from top events including the U.S. Open, French Open, Wimbledon and the Australian Open.
