Ricky Dimon
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The remaining semifinal spots at the Australian Open will be handed out on Wednesday. On the women’s side, Iga Swiatek is going up against Emma Navarro and Madison Keys is facing Elina Svitolina. Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur and Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego are the men’s matchups.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 11 schedule.
Madison Keys vs. Elina Svitolina Over 21.5 games (-140)
The standard game total is 22.5, but I would incur the extra juice to take this down to the alternate line of 21.5. A set decided by 1 break of serve can either be 6-3, or 6-4, so 21.5 takes that variable out of the equation if it is a straight-set match with 1 tiebreaker and the other set decided by 1 break (7-6, 6-3, for example). Svitolina is a considerable underdog, but she should at least be able to make this match competitive. The 30-year-old has lost just 1 set at this Australian Open and that was to fourth-ranked Jasmine Paolini in a match Svitolina went on to win 2-6, 6-4, 6-0. No set has been more competitive than 6-4, so she is crushing opponents for the most part. She almost certainly won’t make mincemeat out of Keys; not does she have any reason to lose in swift fashion. The head-to-head series stands at a close 3-2 in Keys’ favor and 2 of their encounters have required 3 sets – including a victory by Svitolina at the 2019 Australian Open.
Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego Under 1.5 tiebreakers played (-150)
The simplest way to a tiebreaker, of course, is both players holding their serve from start to finish. That’s why big servers play a lot of ‘breakers, and it is true that both Shelton and Sonego and bring the thunder. Each man has been broken only 4 times so far at this event. At the same time, both are returning with a lot of effectiveness. Sonego has earned 18 breaks through 4 rounds; Shelton has broken his opponents 12 times. That’s the main reason why Sonego has played only 3 tiebreakers during this tournament. Shelton played more than 1 ‘breaker in only 1 of his first 4 matches. In 2 matches and 7 total head-to-head sets against each other, the Italian and the American have played just 1 tiebreaker.
Jannik Sinner vs. Alex de Minaur Under 6.5 service breaks (+110)
The best recipe for an under in any market is a short match, and a short match is exactly what Sinner vs De Minaur should be. This is the second-most lopsided matchup among active players on the men’s tour, with Sinner sweeping the head-to-head series 9-0 over De Minaur (Novak Djokovic leads Gael Monfils by a ridiculous 20-0 margin). Of 21 total sets played H2H, Sinner has won 20. His only blemish came in a tiebreaker and 19 of his 20 victorious sets have not needed a ‘breaker. It has been utter domination. The bottom line is another quick one should be in the cards. In 8 meetings with Sinner (not including in the NextGen Finals that uses an abbreviated scoring format), De Minaur has broken serve a grand total of 10 times. That’s barely more than 1 per match for those counting. That means Sinner would have to shoulder most of the load in getting this over the number. Asking the top seed to break an in-form Aussie 6 or 7 times – especially if it’s a 3-set match – is probably too much.
