Ricky Dimon
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The semifinal lineup at the Australian Open will be set after Wednesday’s order of play concludes. Among those hoping to earn their spots in the last 4 on the men’s side are Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. The top half of the women’s draw is totally wide open, with upstarts Qinwen Zheng, Anna Kalinskaya, Linda Noskova and Dayana Yastremska taking the court. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 11 schedule for the season’s first tennis major.
Daniil Medvedev Over 20.5 games won vs Hubert Hurkacz (+100)
Backing Medvedev win more than 20.5 games gives us multiple avenues to success. Any 4-set victory for the Russian would clinch the over as long as the set he loses is by a single break and at least one of the sets he wins is either 7-5 or 7-6. A 5-set win would obviously cash it with room to spare. Medvedev could even win in 3 sets and still cover with a 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 scoreline (or 7-5, 7-5, 7-5, etc). In a matchup involving 2 big servers (especially Hubert Hurkacz), such a competitive scoreline is well within reason. After all, service breaks are almost certain to be few and far between.
Finally, a Medvedev loss in 5 sets should be able to carry him over 20.5, as well. The world No. 3 is a considerable favorite (and he should be), but you have to like Hurkacz’s chances of keeping it close. In fact, the 9th-ranked Pole leads the head-to-head series 3-2 and has never lost to Medvedev in straight sets. Three of their meetings have required a final set, including a 5-setter 3 years ago at Wimbledon and a 3rd-set tiebreaker a month later in Toronto. This has all the makings of yet another thriller between these 2 competitors.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Over 36.5 games (-110)
There’s no need to overreact to the most recent Grand Slam meeting between Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev. At the 2023 U.S. Open, Alcaraz cruised 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 – also in the quarterfinals. However, Zverev had played a five-set marathon against Jannik Sinner just 2 days earlier that ended at 1:39 am. The German had nothing left. Despite that loss, Zverev still leads the head-to-head series 4-3 and he defeated the 20-year-old Spaniard 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4 at the 2023 year-end championship. Even though Alcaraz is a sizable favorite on Wednesday, it’s hard to see him completely dominating.
It is true that Zverev could once again be fatigued since he has played a pair of 5-setters at the Aussie Open (including against Cameron Norrie on Monday), but he will still be in much better shape to face Alcaraz than he was last summer in New York. The world #6 should be able to keep this match competitive for at least 2 sets and perhaps even the entire way, so it should go over a modest 36.5 number.
Dayana Yastremska +3.5 games over Linda Noskova (-115)
Noskova vs Yastremska in a Grand Slam semifinal?!?! You’d better believe it! There has been absolute chaos in the top half of the women’s draw and these 2 players are part of the reason for it. Noskova ousted world #1 Iga Swiatek, while Yastremska has defeated seeds Emma Navarro and Victoria Azarenka (a 2-time Australian Open champion and former world #1) in the last 2 rounds. After beating Swiatek, Noskova got a retirement from Elina Svitolina not more than 3 games into their 4th-round contest. That’s nice from a rest perspective, but it really may not be a good thing.
The 19-year-old Czech did not get to play what would have been the biggest match of her career heading into what will also be the biggest match of her career on Wednesday. Yastremska did get to deal with that pressure in round 4 and handled it as if she was a grizzled veteran, upsetting Azarenka 7-6(6), 6-4. I think the Ukrainian has a good chance to win outright in what is a high-stakes showdown between 2 players who have never been on this stage before. It’s a toss-up for me, so +3.5 games has great value.
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