Ricky Dimon
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It’s women’s semifinal day at the Australian Open, as the men have a day off before getting back in action on Friday. There is no rest for the two female competitors in the bottom half of the draw; Aryna Sabalenka and Magda Linette just won their quarterfinal matches on Wednesday. Victoria Azarenka and Elena Rybakina are also aiming for a place in the championship match.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 11 schedule.
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Victoria Azarenka +3.5 games over Elena Rybakina (-120)
Azarenka is turning back the clock at 33 years old. And the Belarusian just might turn it all the way back to a decade ago, when she captured back-to-back Australian Open titles in 2013. Sure, she may not be as good as she was in her prime, but Azarenka reached the U.S. Open final as recently as 2020 and her form this fortnight has been awesome. The #24 seed beat 2020 Aussie Open champion Sofia Kenin in round one, ousted #10 Madison Keys in round four and then crushed title favorite Jessica Pegula 6-4, 6-1 in the quarters.
Rybakina has also impressed in Melbourne, but she otherwise has not done anything since winning Wimbledon last summer. The big-hitting Kazakh went 12-0 in her last 21 matches of 2022 and she was 1-2 this season heading into the Aussie Open. Rybakina would probably have a sizable advantage on grass, but at Azarenka’s favorite tournament, this has upset written all over it. There is no way the spread should be 3.5 games and I would even sprinkle some on the +180 money line.
Aryna Sabalenka -1.5 sets over Magda Linette (-145)
I don’t see much value on the game spread (Sabalenka -4.5) or over/under (20.5), so let’s ride with what should be a relatively safe play of Sabalenka to prevail in straight sets. These two semifinalists have faced each other twice before and the Belarusian has rolled on each occasion; 6-1, 6-3 on the hard courts of Tianjin 2018 and 6-2, 6-1 at the Tokyo Olympics. Speaking of straight-set beatdowns, Sabalenka has not yet dropped a set at this year’s Australian Open and she has not even been pushed to a tiebreaker.
Linette has done extremely well to make it this far, but her run has come completely out of nowhere for the 30-year-old Pole and this is obviously her first-ever appearance in a major semifinal. She has already handled some uncharted waters quite well this fortnight, but a slam semi against Sabalenka is a whole different beast. Count on the world #5 keeping her set streak alive.
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