Ricky Dimon
Show Bio
We have reached the business end of the Australian Open. The contenders have separated themselves from the pretenders and everyone left in the tournament is 3 wins away from potential Grand Slam glory. Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner are on a collision course for the semifinals and both will be taking the court on Tuesday. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are in action. Let’s take a look at the tennis best bets to be made on the Day 10 schedule for the season’s first major.
Andrey Rublev Under 17.5 games won vs Jannik Sinner (-120)
All signs point to this being tough sledding for Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals. And what’s new? The 5th-ranked Russian is a hard-to-believe 0-9 lifetime in Grand Slam quarterfinals. Yes, Rublev has done very well to make it this far so many times. But as that hopeless record indicates, he just doesn’t have the stuff to beat the best players in the world — and that is exactly what Sinner is. The 22-year-old has surged to #4 in the rankings and right now is arguably looking like the 2nd-best player on tour behind Djokovic.
Sinner has not lost a single set or even played a tiebreaker through 4 matches at Melbourne Park. Rublev, on the other hand, has played a pair of 5-setters – including on Sunday night against Alex de Minaur. Moreover, Sinner is 4-0 all-time in this head-to-head matchup and both of his losses have come via retirement due to injury. If you’re a little bit more confident in Rublev, I would suggest pivoting from this play and going to a higher-risk, higher-reward bet on Sinner to win in exactly 4 sets at +240.
[promo_code type=”promoSingle” ids=”375790″ titles=”Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets OR $1,000 Back If Your First Bet Loses! (bet365 Single Offer)”]
Aryna Sabalenka Under 12.5 games won vs Barbora Krejcikova (-146)
Sabalenka has been absolutely crushing opponents so far this fortnight. The #2 seed did not lose a set en route to the quarterfinals – and that’s an understatement. No set was more competitive than 6-3 and her opening match was 6-0, 6-1 before her third-round contest resulted in a double-bagel (that’s 6-0, 6-0 for those who aren’t up to speed with tennis vernacular). There is no reason to think anything will be different against Barbora Krejcikova.
The veteran Czech is 1-5 lifetime in the head-to-head series and has lost her last 5 sets against Sabalenka 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 and 6-3 (all last season). Three of Krejcikova’s 4 matches so far in Melbourne have required 3 sets, so she is much less rested – and less confident – than her opponent. I don’t think the underdog has much chance of taking any set to 5-5, in which case Sabalenka would stay under this 12.5 number.
Marta Kostyuk +6.5 games over Coco Gauff (-145)
The only previous meeting between these 2 players was a very competitive contest, won by Gauff 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 a couple of years ago on the hard courts of Adelaide. Gauff is obviously a much better player now (and a Grand Slam champion, having won the 2023 U.S. Open), but so is Kostyuk. The Ukrainian is up to #37 in the rankings and climbing, with a 7-2 record this season and her only losses coming to tough opponents in Jelena Ostapenko and Daria Kasatkina. Kostyuk has played 14 consecutive matches dating back to 2023 in which she has not lost by more than 5 games. I’m not forecasting anything like an outright upset, but this is simply too big of a number.
