Ricky Dimon
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Get your popcorn ready for the first day of quarterfinal competition at the Australian Open, because another chapter of one of tennis’ best rivalries is on the menu. Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, who are accustomed to facing each other in semifinals and finals, are going head-to-head surprisingly early in Melbourne. One will be out prior to the semis. Let’s take a look at the Australian Open best bets to be made on the Day 10 schedule, featuring an Alcaraz vs Djokovic pick.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Over 38.5 games (-120)
Anything less than another instant classic between these 2 champions would be a real disappointment. Djokovic is a sizable underdog, but expecting Alcaraz to beat him badly at this particular tournament is absurd. The 37-year-old Serb is an insane 98-9 all-time at the Australian Open with 10 titles. On the other hand, it is Alcaraz’s worst of the 4 majors. The 21-year-old Spaniard has never advanced to the semifinals and this is just his second trip to the last 8.
Both guys are looking great so far this fortnight. Djokovic hasn’t been quite as convincing, but he improved significantly in rounds 3 and 4 from rounds 1 and 2. That’s nothing new for the 24-time slam champ, who has a history of raising his level when he gets deeper and deeper into these events. This is an absolute steal at 38.5 — the number at which it opened at DraftKings. It’s still a fantastic bet at 39.5 and playable even at 40.5.
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Alexander Zverev -0.5 double-faults vs Tommy Paul (-110)
You have to think Alexander Zverev will hit more double-faults than Tommy Paul in the other quarterfinal contest. The German is posting 0.14 double-faults per game so far at this tournament to his opponent’s 0.11. That’s a small margin to be sure, but it adds up over time – especially over the course of a long match that this could very well be.
A key will be for Paul to be competitive as a considerable underdog. Not only would that make it a long match, but it would also put pressure on Zverev. The world #2 has a history of bad things happening when he is faced with pressure, especially in the latter stages of Grand Slams. His double-faulting allergies that plagued him earlier in his career seem to be over, but he is still far less reliable than Paul in that department. In 2 previous head-to-head meetings (both won by the American), Zverev had 15 double-faults; Paul had 3.
Paula Badosa +4.5 games over Coco Gauff (-108)
There is a lot to like about Paula Badosa’s chances of at least being competitive on Tuesday. These 2 women have already faced each other 6 times and the head-to-head series is tied at 3 wins apiece. Coco Gauff prevailed twice in 2024, but both matches went to 3 sets and that was when Badosa was working her way back after missing much of 2023 due to injury.
The Spaniard, who used to be as high as #2 in the world, is healthy now and playing great. She has lost just 1 set through 4 rounds of this Australian Open. There is no denying that Gauff is playing the best tennis of her career at the moment, but her serving woes reared their ugly head once again in her most recent outing on Sunday. The American needed 3 sets to get past Belinda Bencic while double-faulting 9 times. If Gauff does anything like that again, even an outright upset is possible.
