Ricky Dimon
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Time flies when you’re having fun, and we have certainly been having plenty of that throughout the Australian Open. I’m 16-8 on my picks heading into Tuesday for a profit of +12.7 units. My +1200 outright bet on Jessica Pegula is looking great and my +1400 play on Stefanos Tsitsipas is still alive – although Novak Djokovic is admittedly looking scarily good. We are already into the quarterfinals of the season’s first Grand Slam and the semifinal lineup will be complete by the end of Wednesday’s order of play.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 10 schedule.
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Novak Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev Under 36 games (-110)
There is no reason to think this match is going over 36 games. In 2 previous hard-court meetings with Andrey Rublev, Novak Djokovic has dominated 6-3, 6-2 and 6-4, 6-1 — both times at the year-end championship (2021 and 2022). Speaking of dominance, the Serb just crushed Alex de Minaur 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 on Monday night. Rublev, on the other hand, needed 3 hours and 37 minutes to win a 5-setter against Holger Rune — saving 2 match points in the process. The Russian is 0-6 lifetime in Grand Slam quarterfinals and it probably won’t take long for that record to hit 0-7.
Donna Vekic +5 games over Aryna Sabalenka (-130)
I have faded Donna Vekic twice this fortnight (1 win, 1 loss) and now it’s time to get on the bandwagon. The 26-year-old Croat is 7-0 overall this season and in 4 of her victories she has dropped no more than 7 games — including a 6-3, 6-0 rout of Liudmila Samsonova in the Australian Open second round. It should also be noted that Vekic is 5-1 in the head-to-head series with Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian is also undefeated in 2023 (8-0), so it’s not like I’m saying Vekic should be the favorite. But the underdog will likely have no trouble covering a +5 game spread and I would sprinkle some on the +310 money line, as well.
Karolina Pliskova -2.5 games over Magda Linette (-120)
Karolina Pliskova leads the head-to-head series 7-2. In 4 of her wins she lost exactly 3 games and in 2 of the others she dropped only 6. You get the point — when these women face each other it’s generally domination. Magda Linette now finds herself in a Grand Slam quarterfinal for the first time in her 13-year career. Pliskova has already been to this stage 10 times, including 2 runner-up performances and 2 other semifinal showings. So far at this Aussie Open the Czech has not lost a single set and has not even been pushing to a tiebreaker. Count on Pliskova rolling into the semis.
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