Ricky Dimon
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Storylines surrounding last year’s Australian Open – especially the pre-tournament buildup — were dominated by the Novak Djokovic saga (he flew to Australia but was eventually deported out of the country due to being unvaccinated). This time around there is no such controversy and we can simply focus on tennis.
The season’s first Grand Slam gets started on Monday, when Rafael Nadal begins his title defense (Djokovic plays his opening match on Tuesday). Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 1 schedule.
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Parlay: Rafael Nadal ML over Jack Draper and Danielle Collins ML over Anna Kalinskaya (-104)
Rafael Nadal (-260 on the money line) comes into the Aussie Open with plenty of question marks following an injury-plagued second half of his 2022 campaign, but there is no way he should be this small of a favorite. Draper is a tough opponent, but this is not a small ATP 250-point event we are talking about; this is a Grand Slam. In a best-of-5 situation, Nadal should have a significant advantage. While the Spaniard lifted the trophy last year Down Under, Danielle Collins made it all the way to the final, where she lost to Ashleigh Barty. The American always seems to play well in Australia and likely won’t have any trouble with a much less experienced opponent in Anna Kalinskaya.
Jiri Lehecka +4.5 games over Borna Coric (-110)
Perhaps the best underdog value for Day 1 is on Jiri Lehecka, a 21-year-old Czech. He wrapped up the 2022 campaign with a runner-up performance at the NextGen ATP Finals and so far in 2023 he has a win over Alexander Zverev prior to a second-round showing in Auckland (qualified for the main draw and pushed Cameron Norrie to three sets). Borna Coric has cooled off since winning a surprise Cincinnati title last summer and the shoulder on which he had surgery in 2021 remains somewhat of a question mark – especially in best-of-5 matches. I would back Lehecka on the money line, too (+228 odds), but a +4.5 game spread is the safer play.
Rinky Hijikata ML over Yannick Hanfmann (+112)
This should be a fun matchup between former college stars. Hijikata recently played at North Carolina and Hanfmann led USC to a couple of national titles a decade ago. Hanfmann did well to qualify for the Aussie Open main draw, but his competition was unspectacular. The German spends most of his time on clay, whereas Hijikata prefers hard courts. That should give an edge to the 21-year-old, who is also playing at home in front of the Australian crowd. Hijikata is in stellar form, too; he took a set off Nadal at the 2022 U.S. Open and he played a tight 3-setter against Denis Shapovalov to begin this season in Adelaide. A minor upset is probably in the cards.
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