Ricky Dimon
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We are into the quarterfinals of the season’s first Grand Slam, and the lineup on Tuesday is an intriguing one. On the men’s side, Rafael Nadal is taking the court along with Denis Shapovalov, Matteo Berrettini and Gael Monfils. Semifinal spots in the top half of the women’s draw are coming down to Ashleigh Barty, Jessica Pegula, Barbora Krejcikova, and Madison Keys.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made. Following a combined 15-3 performance across the last six days, we will try to keep the momentum going!
Barbora Krejcikova ML over Madison Keys (-113)
I faded Madison Keys on Sunday and admittedly it was a huge bust. No matter; I’m going back to the well once again. The big-hitting American is facing another tough opponent in Barbora Krejcikova — even tougher than fourth-round opponent Paula Badosa. But Badosa was coming off a long three-setter against Marta Kostyuk; Krejcikova is coming off a 6-2, 6-2 beatdown of two-time Aussie Open champion and former world No. 1 Victoria Azarenka. Krejcikova, who won the French Open last year, is playing like a future Aussie Open champion — maybe in the immediate future. The Czech dropped one set to Jelena Ostapenko, but she otherwise has not lost more than three games in any set. Seven times she has won a set 6-2 or worse. Keys could be in trouble.
Rafael Nadal vs Denis Shapovalov Over 37.5 games (-120)
Rafael Nadal is a considerable favorite, but Denis Shapovalov can make this match competitive. He actually has a realistic chance to win it outright, but for the purpose of this bet, we only need competitiveness. Shapovalov has defeated Nadal once before (in 2017 when he was 18 years old) and their most recent meeting last spring in Rome went to a third-set tiebreaker (and that was on the Spaniard’s beloved clay). Both guys are playing well at the moment. Nadal is 7-0 this season, but Karen Khachanov took a set off him in round three and Adrian Mannarino pushed their first set on Sunday to 16-14 in a tiebreaker. Through four rounds, Shapovalov has played two four-setters and one five-setter. Another fun one should be in the cards.
Gael Monfils ML over Matteo Berrettini (+140)
Gael Monfils is 8-0 this season. He won a title in Adelaide two weeks ago and through four rounds at Melbourne Park he has not dropped a single set. Yes, he has benefited from Novak Djokovic’s departure from that section of the bracket, but all credit to Monfils; he is playing great. The 35-year-old Frenchman has always been one of the streakiest players on tour. When he is cold, he can — and does — lose to everyone; when he’s hot, he can beat anyone. Right now it’s safe to say Monfils is trending on the good end of those two extremes. Meanwhile, Berrettini has already played two four-setters and one five-setter at this Australian Open. Monfils has the momentum, so this is a great pick as the upset of the day.
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