Ricky Dimon
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The quarterfinals of the season’s first Grand Slam will be set when play concludes at the Australian Open on Monday. Rafael Nadal, Gael Monfils, and Ashleigh Barty are among those who have already booked spots in the last eight. Who will join them there? Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz are rising stars who have high hopes of doing just that.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made. Following a combined 12-3 performance across the last 5 days, we will try to keep the momentum going!
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML over Marin Cilic (-141)
Felix Auger-Aliassime advanced to the U.S. Open semifinals last summer and now he is making another run at a slam. The 21-year-old has never won an ATP title of any kind – not even at the smallest events – but he clearly loves the big stage. Auger-Aliassime survived tough matches in his first 2 rounds at Melbourne Park, but he picked up the pace and conserved energy in a 6-4, 6-1, 6-1 beatdown of a red-hot Dan Evans on Saturday. That may be the most impressive scoreline for anyone this entire fortnight so far. Cilic is coming off a 4-set upset of Andrey Rublev, but it’s more difficult to see Cilic stringing together back-to-back awesome performances than it is to see Auger-Aliassime doing the same. The Canadian should also be a tougher matchup for the Croat than Rublev was because he returns serve better and therefore can force his opponent to play more defense. It’s safe to say that defense is not Cilic’s forte.
Taylor Fritz +3.5 games over Stefanos Tsitsipas (-120)
Fritz is through to the fourth round of a major for the first time in his career, having previously been 0-6 in the third round. Now that the monkey is finally off his back, the 22nd-ranked American should settle down and start playing even better. And he’s already playing great! Fritz is coming off stellar wins over Frances Tiafoe and Roberto Bautista Agut. Tsitsipas is ranked No. 4 in the world, but he has been nowhere close to that level since losing to Novak Djokovic in a 5-set French Open final last spring. The Greek has been dealing with an elbow injury, too, and he was far from his best during a 4-set win over Benoit Paire on Saturday. I have Fritz pulling off an outright upset, so I will happily take 3.5 games as a bonus.
Parlay: Jannik Sinner ML over Alex de Minaur and Iga Swiatek ML over Sorana Cirstea (-140)
Ale de Minaur is a tough test – especially in Australia – but this match will be on Jannik Sinner’s racket. The Italian is a much bigger hitter. If he plays well, he wins; it’s as simple as that. Sinner leads the head-to-head series over the Aussie 2-0, including 5-1 in total sets. Swiatek beating Cirstea is an even safer play. The Pole, who won the 2020 French Open, has not dropped more than 3 games in any set through 3 matches Down Under – even though she had to face an in-form Daria Kasatkina on Saturday. Cirstea has not been to the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam since 2009. Expect the drought to continue.
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