Ricky Dimon
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We shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves, but at this point it would not be shocking if both the Australian Open men’s and women’s singles champions hail from Spain. Rafael Nadal looks rejuvenated and Paula Badosa continues to play amazing tennis. They will be back in action on Sunday when the fourth round begins. Alexander Zverev, Denis Shapovalov, Matteo Berrettini, Ashleigh Barty, and Victoria Azarenka are also part of a jam-packed schedule.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made. Following a combined 10-2 performance across the last four days, we will try to keep the momentum going!
Rafael Nadal vs Adrian Mannarino Under 29.5 games (-120)
This has all the makings of a beatdown of the highest order. Mannarino is 0-13 lifetime against the Big 3 (Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer). Only two of those losses have come against Nadal, but the point is that the 33-year-old Frenchman is hopeless when the best players are on the other side of the net. Unsurprisingly, each of his two setbacks against Nadal were in straight sets. That isn’t the only reason to expect a Nadal rout on Sunday. The 20-time Grand Slam champion is off to a 6-0 start this season with a title at a smaller event in Melbourne two weeks ago and convincing Aussie Open wins over Marcos Giron, Yannick Hanfmann, and Karen Khachanov. Meanwhile, Mannarino is coming off a four-hour and 38-minute battle against Aslan Karatsev that ended after 2:30 am on Friday night/Saturday morning. The world No. 69 isn’t going to have much left in the tank for a match that he would have basically no chance in even at 100 percent.
Paula Badosa -2.5 games over Madison Keys (-126)
Badosa has been one of the best players in the world dating back to last summer, highlighted by a title in Indian Wells. The sixth-ranked Spaniard is already 8-0 this season with a title in Sydney followed by three victories at Melbourne Park. Keys is also playing well, but she is down at No. 51 in the world for a reason. The American is just now emerging from a prolonged slump that included some injury issues, so asking her to suddenly reach the quarterfinals of a major by beating a top 10 opponent is probably too much. It’s also worth noting that Keys needed a third-set tiebreaker to outlast world No. 110 Qiang Wang on Friday — a match that saw Keys hit twice as many double-faults (six) as aces (three) and commit 50 unforced errors. Badosa should roll.
Denis Shapovalov +5.5 games over Alexander Zverev (-110)
The oddsmakers continue to disrespect Shapovalov, which isn’t too much of a surprise since he struggled after making a run to the Wimbledon semifinals last summer. Well, the Canadian is back in fine form now. He was an underdog against Reilly Opelka on Friday and had no trouble winning that contest in straight sets. Now he is a huge underdog against Zverev, which is more understandable since the German is ranked third in the world — but 5.5 games are too much. Hey, we’ll take it! Shapovalov is 2-3 lifetime in the head-to-head series with Zverev and has taken two of their last three encounters. The left-hander has a real chance in this one, and at the very least he should cover.
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